Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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806 FXUS64 KMAF 180512 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1212 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 After the active day we had yesterday, today is a breath of fresh air. The trough responsible for yesterday`s storms continues its eastward trek across the Red River Valley today, though a subtle shortwave on the western periphery of this departing trough could generate enough lift to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of I-10 this afternoon. Storms that develop would likely be short-lived, and capable of producing gusty winds and small hail, with no severe weather expected. Despite the westerly to northwesterly surface flow and associated downsloping component, temperatures today remain on the cool side in the wake of Thursday`s front, with highs on target to top out in the lower to middle 80s for most, with 90s focused along the Rio Grande and Pecos Valleys. Tonight will be on the mild side as light southerly to southeasterly return flow resumes, with lows in the lower to middle 60s for most of the region. For those who enjoy the cooler temperatures, you should probably stop reading here, because a significant warm up is on hand for Saturday, which then carries well into next week. As the aforementioned trough departs, mid-level ridging will waste no time building in on Saturday, coincident with the return of the low-level thermal ridge. Light downsloping westerly flow on Saturday afternoon will add a touch of compressional warming to the mix, yielding highs in the middle to upper 90s for most and 100s along the river valleys. Even the mountains won`t escape this time, with highs in the lower to middle 90s possible, and only the highest elevations sticking it out in the 80s. These temperatures are about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year, and while Midland usually doesn`t see its first 100 degree day of the year until May 31st, we`ll be flirting with it tomorrow with a forecast high of 99. Needless to say, it`ll be sunny and dry, with no rain expected. On the heels of the hot day tomorrow, tomorrow night will stay relatively warm as well, with lows once again in the 60s for most locations. JP && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Temperatures Sunday and Monday have been increased from previous runs. At the surface, a dryline will sharpen across the central to eastern portions of the area, while aloft, upper level thermal ridging builds in, with the axis of a thermal ridge centered over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This along with strong southerly surface flow and mostly sunny skies will result in daytime temperatures Sunday and Monday reaching 100 degrees and above over most of West Texas, with the first 100 degree day of the year expected for Midland-Odessa. Strong southerly flow will keep lows elevated overnight in the 60s and above, so don`t expect much relief overnight during this early season heatwave. 850mb temperatures around 32-35 degrees Celsius likely translate to highs 10 to 15 degrees above average, 90s west and east of the Pecos River in the SE NM plains, 100s across the Permian Basin and along the Pecos River in SE NM, 105+ over the Trans Pecos, and 110+ along the Rio Grande, especially Sunday and Monday when the warmest temperatures of the long term are expected. However, we may see the highest heat-related impacts on Monday. Higher elevations are the only locations seeing highs only reaching the low 90s. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s are expected both Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures remain warmer than average Tuesday, but an approaching upper level trough and associated cold front Tuesday into Wednesday will mark the end of this early season heatwave, with highs mostly in the 90s north of the Pecos River and in higher elevations Tuesday, and lows Tuesday night falling into the 50s across the far northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin. By Wednesday as this trough passes by to the north and a cold front moves through, highs will be cooler but still warmer than average for mid May, highs upper 80s and 90s, 100s confined to the Rio Grande, with lows ranging from mid 50s across the far northern SE NM plains and Permian Basin as well as higher elevations, to mid 60s elsewhere, with any upper 60s to low 70s confined to the Rio Grande. Unfortunately this cooldown will be short lived, and temperatures will warm once again by the end of the week with highs in the 90s and above most locations and lows in the 60s and above aside from 50s in higher elevations and northernmost SE NM plains. Currently, no rain chances are indicated with the cold front mid week and we are not expecting any rainfall accumulation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR continues through the period with light winds becoming westerly this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 68 101 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 62 101 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 70 104 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 66 104 69 104 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 98 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 54 96 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 67 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 68 102 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 62 106 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29