Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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533 FXUS64 KMAF 171736 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1236 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Temperatures are starting off well below normal this morning following the severe storms that moved through yesterday. Unfortunately, it won`t last much past today. An upper trough will cross overhead today keeping mid level heights and temperatures lower even with a weak downslope component to the flow. Highs will top out in the 80s for most locations with 90s along the Rio Grande. A weak disturbance will round the base of the upper trough helping to generate a few showers and storms along and south of the I-10 corridor. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some gusty winds and small hail will be possible with these storms. Temperatures return closer to normal tonight as winds return to the south. Mid level ridging quickly builds over the area Saturday as surface winds become more westerly. Even with the recent rain, temperatures will respond by climbing to the hottest temperatures we have seen so far this year. Widespread upper 90s are likely across much of the Permian Basin with 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Rivers. And Saturday is the "cooler" day of the weekend... && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 227 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Unfortunately, our first hundred degree day in Midland is likely coming this weekend. Upper level ridging builds in with a thermal ridge axis setting up over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, while strong southerly surface flow helps usher in warmer weather. Sunny skies and 850mb temps around 32-35C support highs in the 100s for most by Sunday, with 105+ along the Trans Pecos and 110+ for the Rio Grande. Don`t expect much of a reprieve overnight as strong southerly winds maintain lows in the upper 60s to low 70s before highs soar back above 100 degrees again Monday afternoon. An approaching upper level trough early Tuesday will tighten the gradient, and warm downsloping winds may continue the well-above- normal temperatures for one more day. Things cool down a bit Wednesday as the trough passes to the north, but we`ll be right back to above-normal by the end of the week. If the early summer heat wasn`t bad enough, precipitation chances are practically nonexistent in the long term. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions with light winds will continue the next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 61 98 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 61 98 62 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 63 102 70 105 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 65 99 66 105 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 58 95 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 53 92 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 62 99 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 63 98 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 101 62 106 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...84