Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
873 FXUS64 KMAF 221917 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 217 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The well anticipated cold front has arrived into the Permian Basin early this afternoon. Temperatures behind the front should be a good 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday as a result. 80s and lower 90s are expected across most of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico. Elsewhere, it remains hot with upper 90s and 100s. Heat Advisories remain for Brewster County into the Davis and Chinati Mountains with the continued heat. Currently, the front has stalled along northern portions of Upton and Reagan Counties with an intersection with the dryline extending south through eastern Pecos and western Terrel Counties. A thunderstorm or two is expected ahead of these features. Any thunderstorms that develop may become severe with a large hail and damaging wind threat. Thankfully, this activity is expected to be short-lived as things move southeast and out of our area soon after. The cold front clears the area tonight and everyone can expect a bit cooler temperatures as a result. Mainly in the 60s with a few 50s in the higher elevations. After this point, a weak trough passing to our north does little for our temperatures. Widespread 90s and low 100s are likely with 110s in the Big Bend. With this in mind, Heat Advisories are needed once again for Brewster County into the Davis and Chinati Mountains with the one addition of Terrell County. It will be dry and breezy with the passing trough, heightening fire weather concerns. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for full details. Temperatures will be similar to tonight for your Friday morning. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 By Friday, the warm-up will be well underway, and we`ll once again find ourselves in what feels like the doldrums of summer through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Persistent quasi-zonal flow aloft as well as compressional downsloping surface flow will see temperatures in the middle 90s to lower 100s and lows in the 60s for most each day through Monday. The hottest temperatures continue to be found across the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and particularly the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, where highs around 110F-115F each day will yield continued Heat Advisory conditions through the holiday. Heat Advisory conditions are also possible, at least intermittently, in the mountain areas of Southwest Texas and perhaps into Terrell County through the weekend, though at this time, most other locations look to remain below criteria. But, no matter how you cut it, the holiday weekend will be hot, sunny, and dry areawide. Early next week, a pattern change may bring us some relief as a trough is progged to move across the northern tier of the CONUS, deepening as it reaches the Upper Midwest. This would result in an amplification of the upper pattern with ridging developing to the west in response to the deepening trough to the east, allowing for a slow, gradual cooling trend with potential rain chances returning to the forecast for portions of the area on Tuesday. But, a lot can change between now and then, so overall, hot and dry will continue to be the rule as we head toward the beginning of climatological summer on June 1st. JP && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue. A cold front has moved through the area bringing northerly winds to all. Winds swap back around to southerly late this evening and early tonight for most. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon across the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, where intermittently breezy conditions will allow for near critical and localized critical fire weather conditions to develop prior to sunset. Fire weather concerns increase on Thursday as the hot and dry conditions not only persist, but worsen as widespread RHs under 5 percent develop across much of the region with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Deep mixing will facilitate stronger winds on Thursday than we`ve seen in recent days, especially across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent areas. Of additional concern is the state of fuels west of the Pecos River, where ERCs are forecast to eclipse the 97th percentile, and where locations from Chaves County and the Sacramento Foothills south across Culberson County have largely missed out on any beneficial rainfall the past few months. Thus, the Fire Weather Watch for the aforementioned area has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Thursday afternoon. The hot and dry conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, though lighter winds on Friday should mitigate concerns somewhat, with another Fire Danger Statement likely needed for the same areas. A passing shortwave Saturday looks to result in another uptick in winds across the northwest, thus, Saturday looks to be the next candidate for critical fire weather/Red Flag Warning conditions, before concerns are somewhat abated by lighter winds and subtly cooling temperatures early next week. Storm chances this afternoon are focused across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, where greenup has greatly mitigated fire weather concerns, with the next round of rain not expected until next Tuesday, at the earliest. JP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 99 61 96 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 60 96 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 73 105 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 64 101 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 61 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 59 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 53 91 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 66 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 67 97 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 63 99 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Terrell. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...91