982
ACUS11 KWNS 211746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211745
OKZ000-TXZ000-211915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Areas affected...Portions of North Texas into southeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211745Z - 211915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated storms will have some potential to intensify and
produce large hail. Uncertainty in these storms being maintained
make watch issuance fairly uncertain. Convective trends will be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have developed in North Texas. These
storms are not captured by any CAMs. Based on the 12Z OUN/DFW
soundings, this activity is most likely rooted somewhere between
800-700 mb--driven by very modest influence from the approaching
shortwave trough in the southern High Plains as well as weak 850 mb
warm advection. The primary uncertainty is how long this activity
will last as the low-level jet is expected to weaken into the
afternoon. Should these storms intensify, the very steep lapse
rates, strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 55-60 kts
will support supercell structures capable of large hail (1-2
inches). Boundary-layer destabilization still appears it will
another few hours. With this activity moving quickly northeast, it
is quite uncertain if storms could root near/at the surface.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32759772 32819785 32999788 33549772 34069762 34479735
            34679706 35079581 35079495 34749481 34069527 33439652
            32759748 32759772