846
ACUS11 KWNS 220815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220815
MOZ000-ARZ000-221015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri southward across central
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220815Z - 221015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/occasionally strong storms expected to continue
over the next few hours.  Isolated and marginal nature of the risk
may preclude the need for serious WW consideration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a vigorous storm which has
evolved not far from Hot Springs/Mountain View Arkansas, within an
axis of moderate instability near/ahead of the surface cold front,
per RAP-based objective analysis.  Farther northeastward within this
same CAPE axis, a couple of stronger cells have evolved over
southeastern Missouri.

While isolated stronger storms will remain possible across this
region over the next few hours, large-scale forcing for ascent
remains subtle at best.  Still, with southwesterly flow aloft
increasing gradually with height, shear sufficient for
multicell/weak supercell storms is evident, supporting isolated risk
for hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range with the strongest
updrafts.  At this time, the anticipated isolated nature of the risk
appears likely to preclude the need for WW issuance.  However, we
will continue to monitor convective evolution for any signs that
coverage may become greater than currently anticipated, which could
warrant further consideration.

..Goss/Edwards.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON   34009311 34219399 34639403 35189300 35819235 36809129
            37179016 36788963 36189095 35479147 35019116 34639116
            34169178 33889244 34009311