936
ACUS11 KWNS 262236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262235
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Eastern TN...western NC...northeast GA...upstate SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...

Valid 262235Z - 270000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and hail will persist into
the evening. New watch issuance is expected shortly.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed from southwest NC into
upstate SC, within a moderately unstable environment. The GSP VWP
depicts rather strong mid/upper-level flow, and 40+ kt of effective
shear, which is sufficient to maintain supercells. While midlevel
lapse rates are not particularly strong, the moderate instability
and favorable storm mode will support a hail threat with the
strongest cells. The supercell storm mode could also support a brief
tornado threat, even though low-level shear/SRH is not particularly
strong. Steep low-level lapse rates resulting from earlier strong
diurnal heating will support damaging-wind potential, especially if
any sort of clustering or modest upscale growth of ongoing
convection can occur.

With the threat expected to extend southward of WW 317, new watch
issuance is expected shortly.

..Dean/Smith.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   36378312 36448208 35418093 34688068 34078144 33968227
            34098284 34258320 34688378 35448384 35858360 36378312