Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
035 FXUS64 KMEG 231943 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 This week is expected to start off warm and rainy, with highs in the 80s and 90s alongside scattered thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the region Monday night through Tuesday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s and afternoon thunderstorms in the portions of northeast Mississippi and the Tennessee river valley. Highs are expected to remain in the 70s through the rest of the week with steadily increasing rain chances through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A positively tilted trough is currently progressing across the CONUS and into our region. A surface cold front is currently draped N/S across TX through AR into MO with a weak surface low analyzed in C MO. As the day progresses, these features will slowly move east with attendant showers and thunderstorms. Some sunshine today has allowed for at least marginal destabilization, as evident with several convective showers developing throughout the CWA. No significant impacts are expected with only small hail and damaging winds being the primary impacts through this evening. Tomorrow will see the passage of the surface cold front, which will make its way into E MS by 00z Wed. More chances for thunderstorms are possible, but impacts will once again only be up to marginally severe for hail and damaging winds. From this point, a new shortwave dives south out of the northern stream and phases with today`s wave. The result is an amplifying cutoff low that is likely to remain over the Central CONUS for the foreseeable future, bringing more unsettled weather. The only complicating factor in this forecast is the expected arrival of what is anticipated to be Helene on Thursday. As a result more rain is in the forecast. The current QPF forecast displays 2-3" between now and Saturday with more being entirely possible based on Helene`s trajectory. However, specific details are difficult to nail down at this range and will likely change in the coming days. Late into the forecast period has a reasonable amount forecast confidence in terms of expected conditions. Given the presence of a distinct cutoff low and the addition of a post tropical system, dreary and wet conditions will likely prevail through the rest of the period. However, as previously mentioned, forecast spread on specific rainfall amounts and impacts are yet to be determined and will likely be amended as we continue through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Primary concern is TS chances through Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears than mid and high level clouds will limit instability and thunderstorms chances this afternoon. Will continue to monitor cloud tops for ice accretion and TS potential through the afternoon. JBR could see some TS this evening, near the southern extent of greater TS coverage over MO. This convection will be driven by a midlevel trough passage forcing the issue. Given limited instability, MEM may be a little too far removed from this forcing to support overnight TSRA. 18Z TAF continued the PROB30 TSRA after 04Z for continuity. This may be removed in future updates. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...PWB