Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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561 FXUS64 KMEG 221740 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mainly dry and hot conditions will continue today as an upper level high pressure system remains overhead. An upper level disturbance will move into the region late tonight and linger over the region through late week. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday night. Cloudy conditions, cooler than normal temperatures, and decent chances for rain will occur Wednesday through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The latest GOES East lower level water vapor loop reveals a closed low over the Rockies with a dampening ridge over the southern CONUS. A couple of MCSs are riding along the ridge near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. This upper low will eject a shortwave trough late tonight and push into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Models continue to advertise a positive to neutrally-tilted trough moving through the Mid-South Monday afternoon into Tuesday. 30 to 40 meter height falls will occur along and north of I-40 with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Bulk shear will remain moderate with up to 35 knots and instability will remain on the weaker side with 1000 J/kg or less. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail. If storms form earlier in the day on Monday, instability will likely be higher and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms could increase. A weak cold front will push into the Mid-South on Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Dry conditions may move into the region on Wednesday, but uncertainty remains high due to a potential tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday. The remnants of this post tropical system could interact with a cutoff low over the Mississippi Valley by late week bringing a heavy rainfall threat to the region. Decided to stick close to the ECMWF in the mid range forecast, which suggests that an upper low will remain over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week with a tropical system pushing into the eastern GOM. This solution translates to cooler than normal temperatures and a decent chance of showers in the forecast each day through next weekend. The potential tropical system`s intensity and track will be crucial to determining the late week forecast. Stay tuned. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across much of the airspace. JBR is expected to lower to MVFR around sunrise tomorrow with the movement of a cold front. VCTS with a PROB30 for -TSRA looks to impact JBR late this evening through around 08Z. Guidance is in decent disagreement on timing and coverage of convection with the cold frontal movement tomorrow. Confidence was too low to include in TAF at other terminals, though potential exists for convection at MKL/MEM/JBR tomorrow afternoon, though best coverage looks to occur after the TAF period. South/southwest winds sub 8 kts will remain across all sites. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH