137
FXUS62 KMFL 271352
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
952 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Radar data still depicts bands of showers streaming across SoFlo
from southwest to northeast, as Helene pushes further north and
into the Carolinas. All tropical cyclone related products for
SoFlo has been discontinued, but impacts regarding coastal
flooding along the west coast, occasional gusty winds and
thunderstorm activity are still expected through the rest of
today.

Expect warm conditions to return today in the wake of Helene as
warm air advection continues from the southwest, with a moist air
mass trapped across the area by a cold front boundary approaching
from the northwest. A Heat Advisory is in effect today for the
eastern half of SoFlo, including all Atlantic metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Hurricane Helene made landfall along Florida`s Big Bend region last
night, and the system continues to move north into the mid-
latitudes with time. In the wake of the system`s passage, a swath
of enhanced moisture will remain across portions of South
Florida. Elevated surface winds out of the southwest will act to
enhance low-level convergence, which may help spawn shower and
thunderstorm activity at times today. Warm upper level
temperatures will limit deep convection, as the activity that
spawns today will be shallow in nature. With that said, strong
wind gusts will be possible, as the highest gusts within
showers/storms may reach up to around 40-50 mph. Rainfall
accumulations could reach up to around and inch or two (at most),
though otherwise expect quick downpours with meager rainfall
totals.

By Saturday, the aforementioned fetch of moisture will progress
northward, allowing for drier air to filter in over the region.
Nevertheless, sufficient remnant moisture should allow for several
showers and thunderstorms to spawn; the highest coverage is
anticipated over southwest portions of Florida. Aside from brief
downpours and gusty winds, expect run-of-the-mill convection with
little vertical extent.

Heat will be the primary concern through the weekend, as southwest
winds allow for a maritime tropical airmass to advect over the
region. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 90s with dewpoints
in the upper 70s, allowing for heat indices to reach as a high as
105 to 110 degrees. As a result, heat advisories will likely be
needed through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The moisture fetch will continue to drift northward with time,
eventually clearing out of the area by Sunday. For the latter half
of the weekend, expect much drier conditions as a plume of drier air
filters in over the region in concordance with an expanding surface
ridge of high pressure.

Through the early/mid-week period, H500 ridging remains dominant,
generally suppressing development of showers and thunderstorms. With
that being said, some remnant moisture may drift southward and allow
for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms to spawn at times.
Overall, expect mostly benign weather and a generally drier pattern
to prevail, with PoPs remaining below climatological ranges through
much of next week.

Strong upper ridging, weak surface winds, and the lack of abundant
rainfall/cloud cover will generally allow for warm temperatures
through the weekend and next week. Maximum temperatures will reach
the low to mid 90s while dewpoints remain in the mid 70s. This may
prompt the issuance of heat advisories through this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 846 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Periods of SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings are expected through the 00Z
TAF period. Breezy S/SW winds will decrease to around 10-12 kts
and gusts to around 22 kts after 15Z. SCT thunderstorms today may
result in brief flight restrictions along with erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Dangerous seas will gradually subside, though remaining
hazardous. As a result, Small Craft Advisories may eventually
replace the Tropical Storm Warning today. Moderate to fresh
southwesterly winds will prevail through the early part of the
weekend, and scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible
through this same period. Expect a drying trend towards the latter
half of the weekend into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the Gulf Coast through
today, as moderate southwest flow remains in the wake of Hurricane
Helene`s passage.

For the Atlantic beaches, a rip current statement is in effect
through at least this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  93  79 /  70  40  30  10
West Kendall     92  78  93  77 /  70  40  30  10
Opa-Locka        92  80  93  79 /  70  40  40  10
Homestead        90  80  92  78 /  70  40  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  80  92  79 /  70  40  40  10
N Ft Lauderdale  92  80  93  79 /  70  40  40  10
Pembroke Pines   93  80  95  80 /  70  40  40  10
West Palm Beach  92  79  93  78 /  70  50  50  20
Boca Raton       93  80  93  78 /  70  50  40  10
Naples           89  80  90  80 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ610-
     630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...17
SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...17