Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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748 FXUS62 KMFL 221146 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 746 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 As mid-level high pressure extends from over the Gulf of Mexico and the frontal boundary remains stalled to the south of the Florida Keys, a drier atmosphere will remain over South Florida. However, with a light, northerly flow, there will be plentiful moisture in the region with PWATs ~1.5 to 1.7". Therefore, the sea and lake breezes that develop and advance inland will help ignite a locally moist airmass that could support convection today and Monday. However, activity will be much more limited in coverage and intensity compared to what we`ve received recently. As the area of high pressure shifts eastward, the pressure gradient across the region will tighten, which will allow for easterly wind flow to increase through the start of the week. With less cloud cover and convection, high temperatures will be just above normal in the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s. Heat indices are forecast each afternoon to approach heat advisory criteria in the triple digits, but should remain just below necessary. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Models begin the long term with a mid-level ridge over the GOMEX gradually migrating east and across the region through around the middle of the work week. At the same time, the dominant high pressure system centered over the SEc CONUS also migrates eastward into the W Atlantic, while a remnant frontal boundary continues to linger over the Florida Keys. As these synoptic features move closer to each other, pressure gradients across the area will become tighter, with sfc wind speeds gradually increasing. Flow veers to a more SSE flow by the end of the work week, with breezy periods expected each day. In terms of chances for rain, the influence of the aforementioned mid level ridge will combine with the high pressure to the north of the peninsula to keep a drier air mass in place on Tuesday. With the lingering boundary over the Florida keys, POPs for Tuesday afternoon remain in the 20-40 percent range, with the highest chances over the west coast and the southern tip of Florida. Sea breezes may again become focal points for deep convection and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours. The forecast scenario for the rest of the long term becomes rather complicated as uncertainty increases towards the end of the work week. Long range models remain divergent regarding potential and timing of possible tropical development over the west GOMEX. Regardless of the final outcome, there is enough consensus about a plume of tropical moisture over the west caribbean reaching the peninsula and bringing increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage for SoFlo. POPs increase into the 50-60 percent range for the Wed-Fri timeframe, with possible widespread showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. Highest level of uncertainty remains in the forecast scenario for the weekend, which will continue to evolve as new model guidance becomes available. High temperatures on Tuesday should generally remain in the lower 90s, then slightly cooler for the rest of the week as cloud cover and shower activity increases. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 744 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions likely at all TAF sites through Sunday. Light and variable wind this morning before turning E/NE in the afternoon at the eastern TAF sites. KAPF winds will become W/NW with the Gulf breeze through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions with a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm in the mid to late afternoon at all TAF sites. Convection and wind should diminish late evening into the overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Generally light winds will continue through Sunday with a decaying frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Winds will veer easterly and strengthen next week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. && .BEACHES... Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases today, but we could still see some minor coastal flooding during high tide. The Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through this evening. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of days. High Tide Tides... Virginia Key - 1:13 PM Sun South Port Everglades - 12:30 PM Sun Lake Worth Pier - 12:14 PM Sun Naples Bay, North - 3:32 AM Sun, 5:50 PM Sun Flamingo Visitors Center - 6:25 AM Sun, 7:53 PM Sun && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 90 79 / 20 10 20 20 West Kendall 93 75 91 76 / 30 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 92 77 92 78 / 20 10 20 20 Homestead 90 77 90 78 / 20 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 90 77 89 79 / 20 10 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 90 79 / 20 20 20 30 Pembroke Pines 93 78 92 79 / 20 10 20 20 West Palm Beach 90 77 90 79 / 30 20 20 20 Boca Raton 91 77 91 79 / 20 20 20 20 Naples 91 77 92 76 / 20 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...RAG