Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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016 FXUS62 KMFL 232343 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 743 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A quick stroll outside this evening reveals much of the same as dry air remains in place across the region. Perhaps, a welcome respite ahead of a more active pattern coming up during the middle portion of this week. The ACARS soundings from local airports would tend to agree with that assessment as a considerable dry layer exists from 925mb up through the vertical scope of the atmosphere. While convection has been sparse today, the potential certainly exists for some overnight shower activity along the east coast of South Florida as the instability of the warm Gulfstream waters may support the development of showers gradually moving westward via a light easterly breeze. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s across the majority of the region overnight with the exception of low 80s along the immediate coast and some cooler values in the mid 70s near Lake Okeechobee. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Mid-level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is keeping a relatively drier air mass over much of Florida today but it will begin to break down on Tuesday with the return of moisture increasing ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine`s departure from the northwestern Caribbean Sea through the Yucatan Channel. The drier air mass and high aloft will again help keep convective coverage lower than climatology while also limiting the potential for stronger thunderstorms. The flip side of less cloud cover and convection is that temperatures will again be a little warmer with many areas reaching the lower 90s and some portions of Southwest Florida reaching the mid 90s. Heat index values will range from 100 to 105 across much of the peninsula with portions of Southwest Florida reaching up to 109 on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 For the middle to latter portion of the week, all eyes turn to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it moves up from the Carribean Sea and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, deep tropical moisture will push into the region which will gradually increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday through Friday. While the exact details still remain uncertain, confidence is increasing in the potential for heavy rainfall and some flooding concerns during this time frame. The latest WPC excessive rainfall outlooks put us in a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 4) on Wednesday, and a slight risk (Level 2 out of 4) for the west coast on Thursday. As far as rainfall amounts are concerned, uncertainty still remains high and will depend on the exact track of the system. If the storm were to track further to the east, this would increase the rainfall totals across the region, however, a track further to the west would decrease these totals. In general, rainfall amounts from Wednesday through Friday evening look to range from 2 to 5 inches across the region with locally higher amounts. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With the increased cloud cover through the middle to the end of the week, high temperatures could be held down and remain in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into the upcoming weekend, the latest guidance suite is hinting at mid level ridging building over the area on Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, southwesterly wind flow will help to keep deep layer moisture advection in place as the moisture tail from what is left of PTC 9 could remain parked over the region. With an abundance of moisture across the region, this could keep the enhanced chances of showers and thunderstorms in place during this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the forecast as well as it will be dependent on exactly where this moisture tail sets up. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With southwesterly wind flow in place, high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s across Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Light easterly flow will persist during the overnight hours with VFR conditions expected at all terminals. Easterly flow will become breezy tomorrow with isolated SHRA/TSRA developing once again across inland areas. Spatial coverage and confidence is too low to include VCTS/VCSH for any terminal at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Strengthening easterly wind early this week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. Showers and thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues over the region. Brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that forms. Eyes will turn to potential tropical development in the northwestern Caribbean mid to late this week which may lead to deteriorating conditions across the local waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Minor coastal flooding conditions should begin to improve as northerly swell and the tidal influence decreases, but some minor coastal flooding is possible during high tide around vulnerable low- lying coastal areas. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches. However, beginning Tuesday, a high risk of rip currents is likely for the South Florida Atlantic Coast beaches. High Tide Tides... * Virginia Key - 2:09 PM Mon, 2:18 AM Tues, 3:07 PM Tue * South Port Everglades - 1:28 PM Mon, 1:39 AM Tue, 2:33 PM Tue * Lake Worth Pier - 1:14 PM Mon, 1:24 AM Tue, 2:19 PM Tue * Naples Bay, North - 7:21 PM Mon, 5:10 AM Tue * Flamingo Visitors Center - 9:02 PM Mon, 8:08 AM Tue, 10:38 PM Tue && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 80 88 / 20 30 50 80 West Kendall 77 91 78 89 / 20 30 60 90 Opa-Locka 79 91 80 89 / 20 30 50 80 Homestead 79 90 79 88 / 20 40 60 90 Fort Lauderdale 79 89 79 88 / 20 30 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 79 90 79 89 / 30 30 50 80 Pembroke Pines 79 92 80 91 / 20 30 50 80 West Palm Beach 79 89 79 89 / 30 30 30 70 Boca Raton 79 90 79 90 / 30 30 40 80 Naples 77 94 78 89 / 30 30 30 90 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Hadi