889
FXUS66 KMFR 261720
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1020 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discusion...

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAFS...Along the coast areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings
will continue through this morning, especially from Gold Beach
south. VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon, before marine
stratus develops again later this evening and continues into Friday
morning with IFR/LIFR ceilings, especially from Cape Blanco north. A
weak front moving into the area Friday morning, will allow ceilings
to rise to IFR/MVFR along the coast.

Inland, marine stratus is confined to the Umpqua Basin, Including
Roseburg and it will burn off  by early afternoon. Guidance shows
Roseburg clearing out towards 19z, which looks reasonable given the
extent and depth of the marine layer. Once the marine stratus burn
off, VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon into most of
tonight. A front could bring clouds back into the Umpqua early
Friday morning, but ceilings should remain VFR with the terrain
partly obscured towards 12z.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
-CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 846 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024/

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows marine stratus
confined to the coast just south of Gold Beach, around Coos Bay
and inland over most of the Umpqua Basin, and parts of the
Coquille Basin. Adjustments were made to the sky cover to better
reflect this for this morning. The marine stratus will be slow to
burn off for the interior, but it should clear out late this
morning.

Today will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for the
interior. A weak front will brush by to our north Friday morning
and could bring a few sprinkles in far northwest Douglas County
early Friday morning, otherwise were looking at dry weather to
continue for the next several days. -Petrucelli


MARINE...Updated 830 AM, September 26, 2024...Conditions will
remain relatively calm through this evening.

Steep northwest swell will build into the area by Friday morning,
and will continue through Saturday. Meanwhile, the thermal trough
will reestablish itself along the coast Friday, producing gusty
north winds and steep wind-driven seas. This combination of
conditions will result in a period of chaotic and potentially
hazardous seas Saturday, then on Sunday, swell will diminish with
winds possibly increasing to gales. Overall, expect hazardous
conditions through the weekend due to a combination of strong winds
and steep to very steep seas.

Winds and seas will ease a bit early next week, but continued north
winds and steep seas are likely to keep at least small craft
advisory conditions ongoing through at least mid-week. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 5
     PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

CC