761
FXUS62 KMHX 310746
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
346 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead today and through
the weekend. High pressure then shifts offshore early next week
with temps returning to around normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 0315 Friday...Jet working through the base of the upper
level trough and modest low- mid level moistening beneath cool
temps aloft have created a period of weak instability timed out
with the passage of the shortwave and very weak SFC troughing,
leading to decent convection working NW to SE from Albemarle
Sound toward Ocracoke Island. Low severe wx threat as instability
will be elevated in nature, though perhaps some pea size hail
could occur should any of the stronger updrafts reach their full
potential with the steep mid level lapse rates. MinTs in the
mid to upper 50s inland to 60s coast.

After a couple of lingering AM showers and iso storms, high
pressure begins building at the SFC from the NW. The upper level
trough axis will be pushing offshore through the morning
leading to NNWerly flow aloft. Low humidities and highs 75-80
thanks to cool and dry high pressure. Tds only in the 40s
interior to low 50s coast, and NNEerly breeze will make it even
feel a bit chilly in the shade. Some diurnal strato cu may
develop, esp Eern zones, and help keep temps down just a touch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 0330 Friday...Ridging builds through the entire column in
the wake of the departing trough aloft leads to a calm, cool,
and clear night. Lows lower 50s most, upper 50s to low 60s
beaches. Chance the typical cold spots inland see lows in the
40s tomorrow morning. Will check records for 0700 update.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Cool high pressure remains over the area
through the weekend with below normal temperatures and low
humidity expected. Then, the high will slide offshore early
next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily
scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Saturday and Sunday...It will be a fantastic start to June this
weekend with low humidity and temperatures in the low to mid
80s. High pressure will be more or less overhead Saturday, and
then shift offshore Sunday. Another cool night expected Saturday
night due to strong radiational cooling, and lows could reach
the upper 50s to low 60s inland.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper level
impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to
near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each
day, and lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 0100 Friday...VFR flight cats through the period.
Showers and a tstorm or two are possible east of the TAF sites
late tonight to early Fri, so have not included any shower
mention at this time, but may have to watch for any development
further W than currently anticipated with later forecasts. Some
sct strato cu in the 5-6k ft range will impact the TAF sites
through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong overnight cooling this weekend could
result in the formation of patchy fog...bringing the threat of
sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0345 Friday...Latest obs show NE-SE winds 5-15 kt with
seas 2ft. Seas will continue around 2-3 ft, highest over outer
Central waters where 4ft possible. Shortwave traveling through
the trough aloft passes over area waters early this morning
leading to chance of showers and a storm or two working from NW
to SE across the Pamlico Sound toward Ocracoke Island around
sunrise. Nerly winds on Fri in the 15 kt range with some gusts
in the lower 20s, but remaining below SCA levels with seas of
2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Good boating conditions expected through the
weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead.

Winds will be light and variable Saturday, with a light sea
breeze eventually developing in the afternoon. Return flow
develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 10-15 kts. Winds
then briefly strengthen to 15-20 kts Sunday night before
returning to SW 10-15 kts Monday. Winds become southerly at 5-10
kts on Tuesday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB