338
FXUS62 KMLB 220159
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
959 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mostly quiet over ECFL this evening, with the KMLB radar showing
some showers and lightning storms across the western portion of the
peninsula where the east and west coast sea breeze collision is
forecast to occur. Satellite and local observation show mostly clear
skies with a few lower and mid level clouds approaching the coast
from the Atlantic. Mostly dry conditions are forecast tonight, with
isolated showers (PoP 20 percent) possible along the coast of the
Treasure Coast, mainly after midnight. Northeast winds of 5-10 mph
this evening will become light overnight with mostly clear skies
prevailing. Models continue to not be overly impressed with fog
potential for tonight, so have kept fog out of the forecast.
However, settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush fires
may also cause visibility concerns along area roadways, especially
near the large "Sandy Drain" wildfire. Forecast remains in track
with only minor adjustments to the cloud cover overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Favorable boating conditions continue tonight. Current buoy 41009
observations show seas are 3 ft with NE winds around 10 KT.
Northeast winds will continue tonight, with winds around 10 KT or
less. Seas 3-5ft this evening will subside to 2-4ft overnight.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible
tonight, especially across the Gulf Stream.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Key Messages...

-Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms still possible
 over the interior through sunset.

-Temperatures increasing through mid to late week, with drier than
 normal conditions expected.

-Hotter and drier than normal conditions forecast to persist into
 the holiday weekend.

Currently-Tonight...Shower development has remained fairly limited
along the east coast sea breeze, but the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and a few storms will continue for inland areas
through sunset as the east coast sea breeze moves westward. A few
onshore moving showers may also be possible late tonight, mainly
along the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, most areas look to remain dry
into tonight, with skies mostly clear to partly cloudy, and lows
falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. Despite a lighter onshore
flow, model guidance not showing much in the way of fog
development tonight, so have kept mention out of the forecast.
However, with lighter winds overnight still can`t rule out some
patchy ground fog in spots late tonight and toward daybreak
Wednesday. Settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush
fires may also cause visibility concerns along area roadways,
especially near large "Sandy Drain" wildfire, that is currently
95% contained, in southern Volusia County near Farmton.

Wednesday...Ridge aloft builds in from the west and drier airmass
building in from the east will help suppress any convective
development with the sea breeze into tomorrow. Only low end rain
chances, around 20 percent, exist across Okeechobee County and
the southern Treasure Coast for the potential for a stray shower
or storm into the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb into
mid week, with highs tomorrow ranging from the mid to upper 80s
along the coast to upper 80s and low 90s over the interior.

Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Anomalous
ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday as 500mb heights reach the
90th climatological percentile. Mid level ridging continues to
remain in place through the weekend, flattening some as a
shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high
pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged
seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday,
increasing moisture and precip chances slightly into the weekend.
However, forecast has been trending drier with PoPs 20-30 percent
on Saturday, around 20 percent on Sunday, and then only 20 percent
across the interior on Monday.

Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early
next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by
Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper
90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further
support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values
reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 820 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light northeast winds tonight
will increase to around 10 KT by mid morning. Gusts up to 20 KT
possible in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and
pushes inland, especially across the interior sites. Mostly dry
conditions expected through the period. Isolated showers will be
possible across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties. However,
confidence is not high. Included VCSH at SUA Wed afternoon where the
best chance for showers will occur.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mid to Late Week...(Previous Discussion) Building high pressure
will promote sensitive fire conditions across the interior
Thursday into late week. Minimum relative humidity values fall
near critical thresholds across the northwest interior Thursday,
ranging 35-40 percent. Values are then forecast to remain in the
low to mid 40s across interior counties through at least late
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  85  70  88 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  71  90  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  73  85  72  87 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  71  88  70  88 /  20  10   0  10
LEE  71  90  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  70  90  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  71  90  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  70  87  69  88 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Watson/Kelly