764
FXUS62 KMLB 261438
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1038 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Primary weather concern for today continues to be heat, as
stacked high pressure and westerly flow pushes afternoon highs
into the M-U90s inland, L-M90s along the I-95 corridor, and
U80s-L90s along the barrier islands. Low humidity and virtually no
instability will limit rain chances to just 20 pct along along
the sea breeze from the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee County in the
afternoon and evening. Potential for lightning storms is still a
stretch at best. HREF probabilities are virtually zero, but NBM is
up to around 25 pct and model soundings near the sea breeze
collision show enough of a favorable environment to support a
slight chance for storms, so went ahead and added lightning. Might
even see a stronger storm with gusty winds if the sea breeze and
favorable conditions come together at the right time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat concerns continue through the middle of this week, with
  afternoon highs in the 90s and peak heat indices reaching 100
  and above.

- Rain and storm chances return to the forecast on Tuesday as a
  weak front approaches, with diurnal convection continuing
  through the remainder of the week.

Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging will extend towards the Florida
peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. The associated high pressure at
the surface located over the Gulf will move eastward towards the
Florida peninsula, bringing slightly drier air, which will reduce
rain chances today into tonight. Isolated showers will be possible
as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, but
guidance indicates this activity, if it does manage to develop,
will likely remain across the Treasure Coast and near Lake
Okeechobee. Low confidence in any sort of storm development led
to thunder being left out of the forecast for today, but will
continue to reevaluate as more model data comes in. A stray
thunderstorm cannot fully be ruled out. Any shower activity will
diminish overnight.

Heat will continue to be a concern across east central Florida,
as temperatures this afternoon climb into the low 90s along the
coast and into the mid to upper 90s across the interior west of
I-95. Peak heat indices across east central Florida will reach 100
to 105 today, so be sure to take frequent breaks in the shade or
in an air conditioned building if spending extended periods of
time outdoors and stay well hydrated. Temperatures overnight will
fall into the low 70s.

Monday...Mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue across
the area on Monday, as the area of high pressure is expected to
remain situated across the Florida peninsula. In a similar set up
to today, the development and push inland of the east coast sea
breeze could lead to some isolated showers across the Treasure
Coast and near Lake Okeechobee, with low confidence in any sort of
storm development. Monday night, rain and storm chances are
forecast to increase across the local Atlantic waters. Heat will
continue to be a concern on Monday with highs in the 90s and peak
heat indices 100 to 105. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Saturday...A mid-level trough digging into the
southeastern US will push a weak frontal boundary southwards
towards the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters on
Tuesday, bringing increasing moisture locally. This will result in
a return of rain and storm chances, with PoPs increasing to 30 to
50 percent across the area. Isolated storms will also be possible.
The boundary is forecast to settle across the peninsula and
gradually diminish, with lingering moisture from the boundary
combining with the east coast sea breeze to produce diurnal
convection each afternoon through the remainder of the week. PoPs
remain between 20 to 40 percent, with isolated storms possible.
Activity through the long term will diminish each evening into the
overnight hours.

Warm temperatures will continue across east central Florida
through the extended period, though guidance does have
temperatures decreasing a couple of degrees each afternoon. Highs
in the 90s Tuesday through Thursday will fall slightly into the
mid 80s to low 90s Friday and Saturday. Peak heat indices reaching
over 100 will continue Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions prevailing. Lower coverage of SHRA forecast today,
with confidence in any impacts too low to include VCSH at any of the
TAF sites. However, the highest chance for seeing a shower will be
along and inland from the Treasure Coast. Light offshore winds this
morning will veer E/SE into the afternoon at around 8-12kts as the
sea breeze develops and pushes inland. The sea breeze collision is
expected to occur near MCO in the late afternoon/early evening,
preventing the east coast sea breeze from reaching LEE. Winds then
become light and generally westerly overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions will persist across
the local Atlantic waters today, with seas between 1 to 3 feet.
West-southwest winds around 5 knots this morning will back to out
of the south-southeast at 10 to 15 knots as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves onshore. Winds will then diminish to 5
to 10 knots out of the west-southwest once again tonight. Mostly
dry conditions are expected across the local waters today, though
some isolated showers cannot fully be ruled out this afternoon
into the overnight hours.

Monday-Thursday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast to
continue through much of this week. Seas will remain between 1 to
3 feet through the period, with light west-southwest winds Monday
and Tuesday becoming south-southeast and north-northwest winds
Wednesday and Thursday becoming easterly as the east coast sea
breeze develops and moves inland. Scattered showers and isolated
storms return to the forecast on Tuesday as a weak boundary
approaches the area and settles across the waters, with continuing
rain and storm chances through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Ongoing heat across east central Florida will lead to continued
sensitive fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values will remain
in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior west of I-95
through the remainder of this weekend and at least through the
middle of the week. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph,
with the east coast sea breeze making west-southwest winds become
east-southeast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast today and
Monday, with rain and storm chances returning Tuesday through the
rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  71  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  96  72  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  91  73  93  74 /  10  10  20  20
VRB  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  20
LEE  95  73  94  75 /  10   0  10  10
SFB  96  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  93  71  96  72 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Leahy