250
FXUS62 KMLB 251241
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
841 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

-Tropical Cyclone Helene will lift north into the eastern Gulf of
 Mexico today through Thursday and produce heavy rain, strong
 winds and possible tornadoes. Rough, battering surf will produce
 dangerous conditions at the beaches.

-Preparations for Helene should be underway and completed by this
 afternoon, with conditions deteriorating tonight.

The main focus for today will be to watch the evolution of what is
currently Tropical Storm Helene. The storm is still located well
southwest of the local area this morning, near Cancun, Mexico.
Helene is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon,
where it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

Locally, gusty showers and storms have already developed along
the Treasure Coast early this morning. This activity is associated
with increasing tropical moisture ahead of Helene. They are not
connected to Helene, but could be considered detached outer
rainbands. Expect to see an increasing coverage of showers and
storms from south to north through the day today, as moisture
lifts northward. Then, attached outer rainbands are forecast to
begin moving into east central Florida late this evening into the
overnight hours, deteriorating conditions.

PoPs mainly confined to the Treasure and southern Space Coasts
this morning will become 50-60% area-wide by late this afternoon.
Locally heavy rain will accompany gusty shower and storm bands
through tonight and training of cells is possible. This would
create a localized flood threat, especially where recent heavy
rains have occurred. Southeast winds will become increasingly
breezy into this afternoon, as the pressure gradient tightens.
Increasing cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the upper
80s to near 90.

Low level shear/helicity will begin to increase and present a
tropical cyclone tornado threat within rainbands this evening
into tonight.

Dangerous beach conditions already exist today, with a High Risk
of rip currents, rough surf, and a developing longshore current.
Use caution at the beach, especially during high tide. Entering
the water is strongly discouraged.

Preparations for Helene should be underway and completed by this
afternoon. Conditions will further deteriorate this evening
through the overnight hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for all of east central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

MCO IMPACTS:
- Gusty crosswinds for N/S ops (ESE G20-25 KT) starting this
  morning.
- 60% chance of showers/storms after 25/18Z with occasional
  IFR/MVFR restrictions.
- Helene to bring significant aviation impacts on Thursday.

Forecast appears on track, except timing of showers has moved up a
bit. For MCO and Orlando area, showers begin mid/late morning,
eventually with TS mention this afternoon. Timing is somewhat
later for DAB. From MLB south to SUA, showers have already been
arriving from the SE with TS potential increasing after 14Z. Dips
to MVFR/IFR expected in/near rain and storm areas.

ESE winds will ramp up to 10-20 KT G20-25 KT from late morning
onward. Gusts will continue along the coast into tonight. Winds
will continue to strengthen into Thursday as Helene moves through
the NE Gulf, along with periods of rain/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the adjacent Atlantic
waters out to 60 nm. Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to
continue to strengthen over the northwest Caribbean, moving north
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and accelerate into
the FL Big Bend late Thursday. Boating conditions are
deteriorating today as southeast winds increase 20 kts, then
strengthening 30-40kts during Thu. Seas building 7-10 ft peaking
at 13 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night. Deep
moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers
and storms thru Thu. Winds will become SW Fri and gradually
decrease near 15 knots Fri night with seas subsiding below 5 ft
along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft
offshore. Flow remains offshore (W to SW) Sat-Sun up to 15 knots
with seas subsiding 3-4 Sat and 2-3 ft Sun. There will be
scattered to numerous storms pushing offshore esp Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  77  89  78 /  50  70  90  60
MCO  90  77  89  79 /  60  70  90  60
MLB  88  79  90  79 /  60  70  80  70
VRB  88  78  91  78 /  70  70  80  70
LEE  90  77  87  78 /  60  70  90  60
SFB  89  77  88  79 /  60  70  90  60
ORL  90  78  89  80 /  60  70  90  60
FPR  88  78  90  78 /  60  70  70  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Heil