Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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771 FXUS62 KMLB 250513 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 MCO IMPACTS: - Gusty crosswinds for N/S ops (ESE G20-25 KT) beginning ~ 25/15Z. - 60% chance of showers/storms after 25/18Z with occasional IFR/MVFR restrictions. - Helene to bring significant aviation impacts just beyond the TAF period (mainly Thursday). Deteriorating conditions through the TAF period due to TS Helene`s approach. For MCO and Orlando area, shower/storm chances ramp up in the afternoon hours and continue well beyond this TAF package. From MLB south to SUA, showers increase overnight and continue into the morning with TS potential increasing after around 14Z. TIX/DAB will see increasing RA/TS after 18Z. East winds 5-15 KT through daybreak, then ESE 10-20 KT G20-25 KT from late morning onward. VFR, except in/near showers and storms where dips to MVFR/IFR expected. For planning purposes: winds will continue to strengthen into Thursday as Helene moves through the NE Gulf, along with periods of rain/storms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tropical Storm Helene continues to organize and strengthen over the NW Caribbean this evening, and will continue to move toward the W/NW toward the Yucatan channel overnight. Low level winds are already increasing between this system and the high pressure ridge along the eastern U.S. seaboard, with 925mb winds around 15-20 knots. This will keep winds somewhat elevated overnight, with speeds around 6-11 mph along mainland areas, and breezy conditions still possible along the barrier islands, south of the Cape. Moisture will continue to gradually build northward into tonight and this will allow isolated to scattered showers to push onshore, initially along the Treasure Coast this evening and then even farther north across Brevard County overnight. A few storms may also develop over the coastal waters and push onshore, mainly along the Treasure Coast. In terms of tropical headlines for Helene, with the 11PM update, all of east central Florida is now under a Tropical Storm Warning, including the adjacent Atlantic waters. The wind field will be exceptionally large, especially on the eastern side of Helene as it lifts northward and intensifies over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night through Thursday. Therefore, the potential for frequent gusts to tropical storm force exists across much of the area, mainly on Thursday into Thursday evening. For additional hazard details related to Helene across east central Florida, please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement issued by NWS Melbourne. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Afternoon-Tonight...Moderate E/ESE flow near 15 knots will produce choppy seas of 3 to 4 feet with winds increasing 14-18 kts tonight. Will likely need a Caution headline tonight south of the Cape for winds increasing to 15-20 kts and seas building up to 6 ft. Lower coverage of showers into tonight (20-40pct southward from near Melbourne Beach and includes ISOLD lightning storm mention) as drier air filters down from the north. Seas building 4-5 ft near shore. Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Wed-Sat...Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to continue to strengthen over the northwest Caribbean, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week. Boating conditions are forecast to deteriorate further Wed into Thu as southeast winds increase 20 kts Wed and 25-30 kts Wed overnight, strengthening further 30-35kts (potentially 40kts for some) during Thu with seas building 7-10 ft (peaking at 12 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night). At least Small Craft Advisories look likely by Wed aftn but it is possible Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings will become necessary for much of the Atlc coastal waters. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms beginning late Wed into Fri. Winds will become S/SW Fri and gradually decreasing into Fri night with seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow turns SW on Sat and decreases below 15 kts and this will allow seas to gradually fall below 5 ft offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 89 78 / 50 70 90 60 MCO 90 77 89 79 / 60 70 90 60 MLB 88 79 90 79 / 60 70 80 70 VRB 88 78 91 78 / 70 70 80 70 LEE 90 77 87 78 / 60 70 90 60 SFB 89 77 88 79 / 60 70 90 60 ORL 90 78 89 80 / 60 70 90 60 FPR 88 78 90 78 / 60 70 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154- 159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil