Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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250 FXUS62 KMLB 251241 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 841 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 -Tropical Cyclone Helene will lift north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today through Thursday and produce heavy rain, strong winds and possible tornadoes. Rough, battering surf will produce dangerous conditions at the beaches. -Preparations for Helene should be underway and completed by this afternoon, with conditions deteriorating tonight. The main focus for today will be to watch the evolution of what is currently Tropical Storm Helene. The storm is still located well southwest of the local area this morning, near Cancun, Mexico. Helene is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, where it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane. Locally, gusty showers and storms have already developed along the Treasure Coast early this morning. This activity is associated with increasing tropical moisture ahead of Helene. They are not connected to Helene, but could be considered detached outer rainbands. Expect to see an increasing coverage of showers and storms from south to north through the day today, as moisture lifts northward. Then, attached outer rainbands are forecast to begin moving into east central Florida late this evening into the overnight hours, deteriorating conditions. PoPs mainly confined to the Treasure and southern Space Coasts this morning will become 50-60% area-wide by late this afternoon. Locally heavy rain will accompany gusty shower and storm bands through tonight and training of cells is possible. This would create a localized flood threat, especially where recent heavy rains have occurred. Southeast winds will become increasingly breezy into this afternoon, as the pressure gradient tightens. Increasing cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Low level shear/helicity will begin to increase and present a tropical cyclone tornado threat within rainbands this evening into tonight. Dangerous beach conditions already exist today, with a High Risk of rip currents, rough surf, and a developing longshore current. Use caution at the beach, especially during high tide. Entering the water is strongly discouraged. Preparations for Helene should be underway and completed by this afternoon. Conditions will further deteriorate this evening through the overnight hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all of east central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 705 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 MCO IMPACTS: - Gusty crosswinds for N/S ops (ESE G20-25 KT) starting this morning. - 60% chance of showers/storms after 25/18Z with occasional IFR/MVFR restrictions. - Helene to bring significant aviation impacts on Thursday. Forecast appears on track, except timing of showers has moved up a bit. For MCO and Orlando area, showers begin mid/late morning, eventually with TS mention this afternoon. Timing is somewhat later for DAB. From MLB south to SUA, showers have already been arriving from the SE with TS potential increasing after 14Z. Dips to MVFR/IFR expected in/near rain and storm areas. ESE winds will ramp up to 10-20 KT G20-25 KT from late morning onward. Gusts will continue along the coast into tonight. Winds will continue to strengthen into Thursday as Helene moves through the NE Gulf, along with periods of rain/storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 455 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the adjacent Atlantic waters out to 60 nm. Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to continue to strengthen over the northwest Caribbean, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and accelerate into the FL Big Bend late Thursday. Boating conditions are deteriorating today as southeast winds increase 20 kts, then strengthening 30-40kts during Thu. Seas building 7-10 ft peaking at 13 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard Thu aftn/night. Deep moisture lifting northward will support a high coverage of showers and storms thru Thu. Winds will become SW Fri and gradually decrease near 15 knots Fri night with seas subsiding below 5 ft along the coast due to the offshore component but remaining 6-7 ft offshore. Flow remains offshore (W to SW) Sat-Sun up to 15 knots with seas subsiding 3-4 Sat and 2-3 ft Sun. There will be scattered to numerous storms pushing offshore esp Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 77 89 78 / 50 70 90 60 MCO 90 77 89 79 / 60 70 90 60 MLB 88 79 90 79 / 60 70 80 70 VRB 88 78 91 78 / 70 70 80 70 LEE 90 77 87 78 / 60 70 90 60 SFB 89 77 88 79 / 60 70 90 60 ORL 90 78 89 80 / 60 70 90 60 FPR 88 78 90 78 / 60 70 70 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154- 159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747. AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Heil