Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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306 FXUS62 KMLB 221746 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VCSH at all terminals for southwest moving showers. VFR forecast, although brief VIS/CIG reductions will be possible with isolated showers. Low confidence in lightning today and have kept any mention out of the 18Z TAF package. East/ northeast winds increase to 10-12 kts through the afternoon. Gusts between 15-18 kts are forecast at coastal terminals. Coastal VCSH continues from MLB southward overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 839 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Current-Tonight...Scattered "low-topped" showers across the Atlc are beginning to move onto the coast and points further inland, with this trend continuing this morning into early afternoon. A diffuse sea breeze will develop and push inland during the day. H500 temps - 3C to -4C will limit instability and lightning storm potential today. We carry 20-30pct PoPs over land. Activity will diminish or push into WCFL for the most part by early in the evening, but we still retain a small PoP along the Space/Treasure coasts overnight. Mid-level ridging along the Texas coast will continue to advance across the GoMex and FL peninsula over the next 24 hours providing subsidence aloft across the region. Weak surface ridging exists to the north. NE winds today increasing to 10-15 mph with higher gusts likely. Onshore winds become light during the evening. Highs in the U80s with a few L90s possible well into the interior. Lows in the L-M70s, perhaps a few U70s along the immediate coast, with conditions remaining muggy. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today-Tuesday...High pressure over the Deep South today drifts eastward into the Atlantic via the Carolina coast through the period. Northeast winds today veer onshore through Tuesday. Winds 10-15kts each day, especially in the afternoon hours, as the sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered lightning storms will decrease through early this week, though at least a 20% chance will linger over the Treasure Coast waters. Seas 3-4ft, with up to 5ft possible well offshore north of Cape Canaveral into this afternoon. Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 70% chance of formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico. Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system. While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to deteriorate into late week, as southeasterly winds increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast for any changes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 74 89 / 0 10 0 10 MCO 74 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 10 MLB 77 89 77 89 / 20 10 10 10 VRB 75 89 75 89 / 30 20 10 20 LEE 73 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 73 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 10 ORL 75 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10 FPR 75 89 75 89 / 20 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ141- 154-159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Sedlock AVIATION...Law