339
FNUS72 KMLB 210913
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for SFWMD - Shingle Creek...SFWMD
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
513 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Light northeast winds increase near 10 mph as the sea breeze passes
the burn site this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms are forecast along the sea breeze with coverage increasing
after 2 PM. Shower and storm activity diminishes after sunset. Min RH
values remain above critical values, only falling to around 50 percent.
Generally good smoke dispersion early becomes very good late in the
afternoon. Warm today with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Conditions dry into Wednesday with no mentionable precip forecast.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1500, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light north winds become northeast into
late morning, increasing to 9 to 10 mph
late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 13 mph.
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 64.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13  18  19  24  24  32  38  46
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  20  40  40  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   2   3   3   3
Temp............79  82  84  85  86  86  86  86
RH..............72  65  59  56  53  54  54  55
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   8   9   9   9   10
20 FT wind gust.10  12  13  14  14  14  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.1 5.1 4.5
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   8   8   9   12  13
Dispersion idx..32  40  47  55  60  60  65  62
LVORI...........3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1900, then 1-8 strikes until
                    2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....61 decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........37     24     24     11     11     7
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     10     0      0      0      0
LAL.............3      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............85     82     78     75     73     73
RH..............57     63     75     84     87     89
20 ft wind......NE 10  E 10   NE 7   NE 5   NE 3   NE 3
20 ft wind gust.14     14     12     8      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   2200   700    500    400    400
Transport wind..E 13   E 14   E 10   E 8    E 8    E 7
Dispersion idx..62     9      5      3      4      3
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 70.
LVORI...............6 increasing to 8 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 5 early in the morning decreasing
                    to 3 late in the morning decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........5         8         14        15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............73        78        85        89
RH..............90        75        56        46
20 FT wind......NE 3G6    E 5G8     E 7G12    E 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1900      4700      5900
Transport wind..E 8       E 7       E 8       E 9
Dispersion idx..4         19        45        61
LVORI...........6         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Law
Requested by...James Blush
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414741.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jblush@sfwmd.gov