217
FXUS64 KMOB 260929
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Dry and warm conditions expected today as the upper ridge
amplifies over the area. Strong subsidence under the ridge will
act to suppress shower and storm development. Monday will be more
active as the ridge flattens and an upper trough moves across the
Mississippi River Valley. An associated front will move into the
area during the afternoon with an increase in the coverage of
showers and storms. The increased lift and shear in the vicinity
of front will lead to the potential of strong or isolated severe
storms. The main threat will be gusty winds and hail in the
stronger storms. SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe storms for
much of the area Monday afternoon for this threat.

Today and Monday will remain hot. Daytime highs will warm into
the upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s further inland. Max
heat index values today will near 100 degrees, but should remain
below the triple digits for most of the area. Heat index values on
Monday will climb into the 100-105 range across much of the area.
/13

&&

.SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

The boundary may stall just south of the coastline on Tuesday,
which would keep isolated chances for thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours. There remain a great deal of uncertainty as to
how far south and how quickly the front is able to reach, so will
maintain isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the
boundary is expected to have dissipated with high pressure and
upper ridging building back into the area. This will bring hot and
dry conditions back to the region, with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will
continue through Monday. Winds will be slightly higher in the
bays and sounds with the afternoon seabreeze. A cold front will
approach from the north on Monday and push offshore by Tuesday
night. A light diurnal flow pattern will follow in the wake of the
front, with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  75  89  72  93  68  91  68 /   0   0  30  10  20  10  10  10
Pensacola   87  77  88  75  92  71  90  70 /   0   0  20  20  10  10  10  10
Destin      85  77  86  76  89  72  88  71 /   0   0  20  20  10  10  10  10
Evergreen   92  72  91  68  92  64  91  63 /   0  10  50  30  10  10  10  10
Waynesboro  92  73  93  68  92  65  89  64 /   0  20  40  20  10  10  10  10
Camden      91  72  90  67  89  64  88  63 /   0  10  50  20  10  10  10  10
Crestview   90  71  90  70  94  65  92  64 /   0   0  40  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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