Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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690 FXUS64 KMOB 251710 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1210 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours at the terminals, with mostly clear skies and southerly winds. A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible early Sunday morning; however, confidence is too low to add mention in this forecast cycle. /73 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 An upper level ridge remains just to our west, placing the area in a west to northwest flow aloft. To our northwest, we are watching another decaying MCS across north-central Mississippi. The impacts with this system are expected to remain to our north outside of the remaining high clouds this morning. This afternoon, another shortwave in the flow will bring the potential of isolated to scattered showers and storms to mainly northeast portions of the region. MLCAPES of 2000-2500 J/kg and deep layer shear values of 40 knots would support the potential of a few stronger storms with gusty winds and large hail the main threat. SPC has a Marginal Risk over portions of south central AL today to cover this potential. The upper ridge will amplify over the area on SUnday in response to a developing trough over the plains. This will keep conditions dry and warm across the area on Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s inland to upper 80s along the coast. Lows will range from the low to mid 70s. /13 SHORT & LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The upper ridging quickly moves east Sunday night into Monday as a trough amplifies over the eastern states through the early part of the week. This will send a weak "cold" front into the area Monday and moving toward the coast or just offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, we expect an increase in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Memorial Day. It`s certainly not looking like a washout, but there will likely be some thunderstorms present. A few of these storms could become strong as well with gusty winds. SPC has the area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for this potential. The rain chances will linger into Tuesday, especially along the coast, as the front hangs up over the coastal counties. A much drier airmass is expected to move into the area Thursday into Friday. Despite the drier air with the front, it will not bring any cooler weather with it for daytime highs as upper 80s to lower 90s will be theme through the week. The drier airmass will allow low temperatures to drop into the 60s across much of the area mid to late week. 13/34 MARINE... Issued at 445 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to persist across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will be enhanced across inland bay and sounds each afternoon with the seabreeze. A cold front approaches from the north on Monday and will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms Monday into Tuesday. A brief light offshore flow is expected by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 73 89 75 90 72 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 30 10 20 10 10 Pensacola 75 86 77 87 75 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 20 10 20 10 10 Destin 76 85 77 86 76 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 20 10 20 10 10 Evergreen 71 91 71 91 68 92 64 90 / 10 0 10 40 20 20 10 10 Waynesboro 71 93 72 93 68 92 65 89 / 10 0 10 40 20 20 10 10 Camden 71 91 72 90 67 90 64 88 / 20 0 10 40 20 20 10 10 Crestview 71 91 70 91 69 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 30 10 20 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob