Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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434 FXUS64 KMOB 270258 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 958 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 All convective bands associated with Hurricane Helene are currently east of the western FL panhandle and southwest-south central AL. As the hurricane lifts north some rainbands may work into the FL panhandle and south central AL. Ceilings will be mostly VFR, but some periods of MVFR to IFR possible over eastern half of forecast area. No LLWS expected as deeper layer northerly winds are occurring. Northwesterly to northerly winds at TAF sites, gusting to 30 knots at times. DS/12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Synoptic Overview...Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show the center of the mid/upper cutoff low in the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers. Major Hurricane Helene continues to look more impressive with deeper convection occurring north of the center. The mid/upper low will move little into early evening but is forecast to slowly pivot southward toward northern MS late tonight into early Friday morning. Hurricane Helene will meanwhile be steered northward toward the Florida Big Bend region and will likely experience continued intensification before landfall. Coastal Hazards...Significant long period swell packets will continue to impact our beaches through Friday morning, with large breaking waves of 6 to 11 feet occurring through the overnight hours. A High Surf Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory remain in effect until 1 PM Friday, with minor coastal flooding leading up to the occurrence of high tide early Friday morning, resulting in flooding of lots, parks, and low lying roads, especially along the immediate coastal sections due to the wave runup. In addition, a High Rip Current Risk remains in effect through late Friday night. Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure. Wind Advisory...A tight pressure gradient and expanding wind field on the western side of Helene will result in gusty winds across our coastal portions and interior portions of south central AL. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through midnight for central/southern Mobile and Baldwin AL counties, Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and counties in the western FL panhandle, and for Butler, Crenshaw, and Covington in AL. Winds of 15-25 mph with potential gusts up to 40 mph are anticipated in the Wind Advisory area. The fast forward motion will allow Helene to quickly lift into Georgia tonight. The deeper moisture should lift to the north of our area tonight with a drier airmass settling in place, so the ongoing rain across our far eastern zones will taper off to our northeast by late tonight. Dry conditions and improving coastal conditions will follow through the remainder of the work week. /22 SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 pM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The combined remnants of Helene and an upper low that has been meandering over the mid Mississippi River Valley the last 24-36hrs meanders northeast to over the Ohio River Valley into Sunday, weakening into a mean upper trough over the Eastern Conus. This trough moves east over the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley to over, then east the East Coast by early Tuesday as upper level high pressure moves over the Southern Plains. The forecast area remains under dry (precipitable h20 values < 1.25"), but not appreciably cooler northerly flow into Wednesday. Low level flow becomes more variable the later half of the week as a surface ridge builds along the East Coast. A surface boundary tries to work its way north towards the northern Gulf the end of the week as another system develops over the southern Caribbean and heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula, but with a limit to the northward push, any rain is expected to be south of the northern Gulf coast. The dry airmass and mostly sunny days, along with increasing upper subsidence in the coming week, will bring high temperatures rising to well above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday rise into the upper 80s to around 90 for the coming week. Low temperatures Saturday night in the low to mid 60s north of I-10, mid 60s to low 70s south of I-10 to along the coast moderate upward a bit into the coming week, but most of the forecast area sees low temperatures in the 60s through the coming week. /16 MARINE... Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Major Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall cross the Big Bend coast of Florida this evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida 0-60 nm Gulf waters, the 20-60 nm portion of the Alabama waters, and eastern Choctawhatchee Bay. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area. Winds and seas subside on Friday. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Helene. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 84 67 87 66 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 68 83 73 86 72 86 73 87 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 69 84 74 86 74 86 73 86 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 62 84 63 87 63 89 65 89 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 61 82 62 86 61 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 61 81 64 83 62 85 63 86 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 63 84 64 87 66 88 66 88 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ALZ057-058-060- 263>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266. High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for FLZ201>206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ630>635-650. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ636-655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob