Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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034 FXUS64 KMOB 232110 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A rather benign weather pattern will continue in the near term. Upper level ridging over the Gulf Coast will gradually slide east and become centered over the western Atlantic by Tuesday evening. At the same time, an upper trough will dig across the Mississippi Valley and send an associated surface front into northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A subtle surface ridge will remain positioned along the Deep South through Tuesday which will maintain a light southerly to southeasterly flow through the period. The influence of the upper ridging aloft and lack of substantial deep layer moisture will keep conditions mostly dry through Tuesday. The only exception will be a brief shower or storm that may try to develop during the afternoon hours, but confidence in this potential remains low. Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s with high temperatures on Tuesday rising back into the lower 90s with upper 80s along the immediate coast. Patchy fog may also develop over interior portions of the area late tonight or early Tuesday morning. /14 && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 All eyes during the short term period will be on the Gulf of Mexico, where a strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane is expected to be entering the southern Gulf. The eventual motion of the system will depend on the interaction of developing longwave trough digging across the Mississippi River Valley and an upper ridge over the western Atlantic. Models have trended stronger with the upper trough and as a result the forecast track has moved eastward. An upper low is forecast to cutoff at the base of this trough and drift westward Wednesday into Thursday. These systems like to take the path of least resistance which leads to a track toward the FL big bend area in the break between the trough to the west and ridge to the east. Air Force aircraft is currently investigating the area around Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which will likely be a tropical storm by Tuesday morning. This data along with increased upper air data will hopefully continue to help models resolve the storms track and intensity. We will have to continue to watch for track changes as there are a few GFS ensemble members that have a further west track. Regardless, this system will bring very hazardous marine conditions, including dangerous surf and rip currents to the area mid to late week. Rain chances will be on the increase Wednesday into Thursday as the forcing from the upper trough and associated front move into the area. On the current forecast track, northerly flow would bring drier air into the area Thursday afternoon and evening. /13 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The remnants of the tropical system are expected be in northern Georgia by 8AM Friday and into the Ohio Valley by Saturday. Meanwhile, the upper low will slowly weakens and drift west northwest. The flow around the remnants of the tropical system will bring drier air into the area through Saturday. Moisture levels increase again by early next week with isolated showers and storms returning to the area. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 410 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 NHC has started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 which is expected to strengthen and move into the southern Gulf on Wednesday. This system will bring significantly higher seas and strengthening winds to the marine area. Please see the National Hurricane Center for more information. Winds and seas are expected to subside Friday into Friday night, although there is uncertainty regarding how quickly this occurs. /14 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 91 71 86 70 79 68 84 / 0 10 20 70 70 70 40 20 Pensacola 74 89 75 85 72 79 71 84 / 0 10 30 70 80 80 40 20 Destin 75 88 75 85 73 80 74 84 / 0 10 30 60 80 80 50 20 Evergreen 68 93 69 87 70 79 68 83 / 0 10 20 70 80 80 50 30 Waynesboro 69 92 69 87 67 80 67 82 / 0 10 20 60 50 60 40 20 Camden 70 92 69 85 68 77 67 81 / 0 0 30 70 70 70 50 30 Crestview 69 93 70 86 71 79 67 85 / 0 10 30 70 80 90 50 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob