894
FXUS64 KMOB 311922
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will
continue pushing toward the east through the period. This ridge
will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into
tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic.
Looking upstream, a weak shortwave impulse over Mississippi is
pushing northeastward, moving along the western periphery of the
ridge. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this
feature will likely remain to our west, although as subsidence
from the ridge moves away from the region, cannot rule out the
development of isolated to scattered showers and storms,
especially over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama (PoPs around 20-30 percent) given the weak
forcing, modest instability, and increasing moisture. The
remainder of the area should remain mostly dry for the rest of the
day, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out
(PoPs elsewhere around 10-20 percent). Highs today will reach the
upper 80s to low 90s.

For tonight and into tomorrow, the pattern becomes much more complex
as a shortwave trough moves into the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
and eventually into the Tennessee River Valley. Several more robust
shortwave impulses begin to ride along the base of the trough,
helping to provide plenty of large-scale forcing across the area.
Additionally, at the surface, outflow boundaries from the previous
storms over Mississippi/Louisiana look to slowly push into our area.
The first of the main impulses will approach the area tonight,
helping to initiate scattered to numerous storm development,
especially over the western half of the area where the outflow
boundaries will be located. By the morning and into the early
afternoon, convective coverage looks to become more widespread
across the entire local area as the impulses continue to move
overhead. Instability tonight is expected to increase rather
quickly, with a few CAMs suggesting CAPE values generally around
1500 to 2500 J/kg prior to storm initiation. Deep layer shear out
ahead of the storms looks rather meager, however, shear values
should begin to increase (to around 25-35 knots) during the morning
hours from the west. This increase in shear may allow for storms to
organize into multicellular clusters (one or two supercells cannot
be ruled out) and eventually into an MCS as the shear punches into
the developing storms. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of
producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a
marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the entire local
area. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to our
north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes
are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing
high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance
type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm
motions. Coverage may begin to lower by the middle to latter part of
the afternoon, but this depends on how worked over our environment
becomes after our late night/morning rounds of storms.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s a
long the coast. Highs tomorrow should only reach the low to mid 80s
due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover. A moderate risk of
rip currents tonight will increase to a high risk tomorrow. /96

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north
central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the
western Atlantic during the period. A series of shortwaves progress
across the forecast region through the period, though the shortwaves
will be stronger during the Saturday night into Sunday time frame. A
surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday
night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the
forecast area, with precipitable water values typically ranging from
1.75-2.0 inches. Have gone with chance pops Saturday night and
chance to likely pops for Sunday as the series of stronger
shortwaves move across the area, then slight chance to chance pops
follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves weaken. May see a few
strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night
range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast then
trend a bit warmer through Monday night to range from the upper 60s
inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on Sunday will be
in the lower to mid 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s
to around 90. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday
night through Sunday night, then a moderate risk follows for Monday
and Monday night. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily
amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated
surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front
through the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast
area through Thursday with some modestly drier air flowing into the
region Thursday night but looks to recover on Friday. Forcing looks
to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with
dry to slight chance pops, then slight chance to chance pops follow
for Thursday as the front moves into the area. Have gone with slight
chance pops for Friday due in part to some uncertainty with the
timing of the frontal passage. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A moderate southeasterly flow is expected through much of the
weekend. Winds will occasionally become strong late tonight and
into Saturday morning and exercise caution headlines will likely
become necessary for this period. By late Sunday into the early
part of next week a lighter onshore flow returns to the marine
area. Waves and seas increase over the weekend as well before
subsiding early next week. /96


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  83  70  84  71  88  72  89 /  60  90  50  60  20  20  20  20
Pensacola   74  82  73  84  73  86  74  87 /  60  90  50  50  20  20  10  10
Destin      74  82  74  84  75  86  75  87 /  40  80  40  40  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   69  81  66  84  67  90  68  91 /  40  90  50  60  20  20  20  20
Waynesboro  69  83  67  84  68  88  69  92 /  60  90  40  70  20  30  20  20
Camden      68  81  67  83  67  88  69  91 /  40  90  50  60  20  30  20  20
Crestview   69  83  67  86  67  90  67  91 /  30  80  40  60  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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