159
FXUS63 KMPX 231813
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures return today with thunderstorms and
  showers developing ahead of a cold front this evening. A few
  storms could be strong to severe tonight.

- Seasonable temperatures through the Memorial Day weekend with
  a few chances of showers through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

TODAY... The pattern remains active for the near term with a
shortwave trough ejecting out of the northern Rockies. This leads to
a sub 1000mb sfc low pressure approaching Minnesota from the Dakotas
tonight. This will set the table for another round of showers and
thunderstorms across western and central Minnesota. At the surface,
warm front will move north through the region today allowing
temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s. One thing
to keep an eye out for this afternoon is the potential for a few
isolated showers/storms popping up in the diurnal cumulus field
across central Minnesota. These storms will likely stay sub-severe,
but gusty winds and small hail. Most should stay dry throughout
today. Additional development is expected along and ahead of the
approaching cold front over the Dakotas this evening. The main
concern with how intense these storms will be as they approach W MN
given the limited instability in place ahead of the line. Timing is
also working against it as these storms are forecast to move through
late evening through Friday morning. There will be a LLJ that will
aide in moisture and elevated instability advection. Storms may take
a more linear appearance allowing them to maintain some organization
into Friday morning. If we look at the hires guidance, forecast
soundings aren`t exactly screaming severe potential. Instability
will be modest at best, but the one positive will be the shear
profile. Forecast hodographs show a sickle shape with increasing
speeds with height across W MN after sunset. If storms organize into
a more linear complex, damaging wind potential will be higher vs
cluster convective mode. SPC`s day 1 SWO Marginal (1/5) is
reasonable considering the favorable shear environment limited by
modest instability during the diurnal minimum. QPF amounts of 0.25
to 0.50" are likely with locally higher amounts by Friday AM.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... Guidance signals that the pattern
should remain somewhat active into the middle of next week. On
Friday, the focus shifts to the next shortwave emerging from the mid-
level troughing across the western CONUS. The first shortwave lifts
NE through the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes,
eventually swinging into Manitoba and Ontario. Saturday for the most
part should be dry with ridging/subsidence behind the exiting
shortwave. Broad isentropic ascent spawn showers that`ll move across
southern Minnesota. Forecast soundings show very limited instability
so only isolated t-storm coverage at best. Temperatures will remain
seasonable, in the 60s and 70s, but temps begin to warm by the end
of the long term forecast period (next thursday). QPF amounts should
remain on the lighter side, generally 0.25" or less, through Sunday
night. Model spread and uncertainty ramps up for Memorial day onward
regarding the next shortwave to eject from the western US. Have
continued to lean on the NBM rain chances, given the degree of
spread present with generally 30 to 60% rain chances Sunday/Memorial
Day. This uncertainty means those of us with holiday weekend plans
will have to pay attention Sunday night into Monday for possible
impacts.

Looking ahead towards the middle of next week most guidance seems to
be in general agreement showing a trend toward ridging building in
and drier conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. We will
have to monitor the latter half of the forecast due to the increased
uncertainty in placement of any shortwaves moving through the mid-
level trough over the western CONUS. As a result, low end rain
chances exist into Wednesday night into Thursday. Temps should
be fairly seasonable for late May/early June.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions into this evening with FEW/SCT cumulus through
sunset. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern ND
& northwest MN by late this afternoon, with a low (10-20%) of a
thunderstorms developing far enough south to impact AXN by early
evening. Otherwise, a line of showers & thunderstorms will move
into Minnesota after midnight, reaching eastern Minnesota by
sunrise & western Wisconsin by 7-8 AM. Thunder chances are
highest across southern Minnesota (MKT) but will include a
PROB30 at RWF/MSP/RNH/EAU for 2-3 hours tomorrow morning.
Visibility is mainly expected to be borderline MVFR/IFR during
the showers tomorrow morning, with periods of IFR possible
during thunderstorms. Ceilings will also lower as the rain
begins & linger into at least mid-morning, with most terminals
expected to see a few hours of MVFR tomorrow morning. Winds will
generally be southerly to southeasterly this afternoon with
speeds around 10 kts. Winds become predominately southeasterly
this evening & overnight with gusts of 20-25 kts developing as
the rain begins. A wind shift to southwesterly is expected after
the rain ends, with gusts around 20 kts remaining through the
morning.

KMSP...Showers and thunderstorms could begin as early as 5 AM,
but 6-7 AM is the more likely start time as of now. A few
rumbles of thunder are likely, but will wait for confidence on
the thunder chances to increase before going prevailing TSRA in
the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind E 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...ETA