570
FXUS63 KMPX 260747
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
247 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions across western MN this
  afternoon.

- High in the 80s through Monday.

- A dry cold front will pass on Monday, briefly dropping temperatures
  down Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

- September of 2024 will be the warmest and driest on record in
  the Twin Cities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

It`s a clear and calm morning across the Upper Midwest with
less fog than yesterday morning, but there are still patches
here and there. It will be another pleasant day with full sun
and highs returning to the low to mid 80s. Increasing winds and
RH dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s across western
Minnesota will bring elevated fire weather conditions there this
afternoon.

The pattern will remain stagnant for the next several days
thanks to ridging from the southwestern U.S. stretching north
into central Canada. A cut off low over the Mid South will
interact with a landfalling Hurricane Helene in the Florida Big
Bend region later today and tonight. The result will be an even
deeper cut off low that is not expected to move much through
Sunday. A rinse and repeat forecast is in the cards for us with
each day rising into the 80s under clear skies.

By early next week, a deep trough will traverse Canada and send
a cold front south late Monday/Monday night, while also kicking
the southern low out. A sharp drop in temperatures expected
Tuesday with highs only in the low to mid 60s. Some moderation
back to the 70s should occur mid week as the trough lifts out.
There is very little or no chance of precipitation until
perhaps later next week and another trough approaches.

As noted in the previous discussion, it`s now certain this
month will be the warmest and driest September on record in the
Twin Cities with the current numbers already breaking the
records set last year, several days with well above normal temps
forthcoming, and no precipitation expected until at least early
October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Light and variable winds and clear skies are expected through
this morning. Fog is once again a possibility for our Wisconsin
terminals early this morning, but only felt confident enough to
include it as a TEMPO for KEAU. Southerly winds around 5-10kts
are expected this afternoon before becoming light and variable
once again overnight. The exception is KAXN which could see
gusts near 20kts this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5 kts becoming E.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Dye