943
FXUS63 KMQT 260828
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
428 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected into Monday, but rain chances resume late
Monday when the next trough enters the Great Lakes Region.

- Temperatures trend well above normal into next week, but a rapid
dip in temperatures is on track for Tuesday with a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The quiet weather continues today as a mid level ridge currently
over the Dakotas shifts east toward the Western Great Lakes and a
~1017mb sfc high meanders northeast over the Great Lakes. Nighttime
RGB satellite imagery highlights some scattered ~6kft clouds over
the central UP, but otherwise clear skies prevail across the region.
Temps under these clear skies have generally settled into the mid
40s in the interior and upper 40s to mid 50s by the lakeshores. With
temps reaching dewpoints and not much of any wind, some patchy fog
has been observed, particularly in central Upper MI. This fog will
continue through around an hour after sunrise.

Mostly sunny skies and dry weather is expected through this
afternoon. With 925mb temps around 18-20C, above normal temps
continue. Some lake breezes off both Great Lakes should moderate
temps in the low to mid 70s by the lakeshores, but highs in the
interior will peak in the mid to upper 70s. It is not out of the
question for some spots in the interior west to hit 80 as noted in
some of the MOS guidance. Otherwise, winds remain light around 5 to
10 mph. All in all, today should be a nice fall day!

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Early in the extended period, Upper Michigan will remain under the
influence of strong ridging.  However, changes in the synoptic setup
include a shift in the mid-level troughing to eastern Canada and the
phasing of Hurricane Helene with a closed low over the western
Tennessee Valley.  Farther west, the upper air pattern becomes more
zonal over the central CONUS, while a trough enters the Pacific
Northwest. Therefore, the main focus through the weekend and into
next week continues to be the above normal temperatures and the
fluctuation between summer and fall conditions around this time of
year. The bulk of the dynamics from Hurricane Helene will remain to
the southeast of Upper Michigan.  So, daily high temperatures will
generally be in the 70s and even near the 80 degree mark on Friday
and Saturday in the southerly surface flow. Meanwhile, overnight
lows will continue to dodge the freezing mark with widespread
40s/low 50s through Monday night.  By Tuesday, however, long range
ensemble models trend toward an abrupt shift back to Fall as high
temperatures struggle to even reach 60 degrees. And, overnight lows
will dip back into the upper 30s and even mid 30s across the
interior west.

The shift in temperatures mentioned above will be attributed to the
next trough, progged to enter the upper Great Lakes on Monday night.
This disturbance will shift the ridge axis farther eastward and
bring an associated cold front with it that will be responsible for
the rapid temperature change. In addition, this will be the
next chance for rain showers. And, due to decent consistency in
the operational models and associated ensemble means, will
continue to lean toward 30-50% pops from Monday night through
Tuesday night. Past that, inconsistency increases in the 20%
pops (north and east) for Wednesday and Thursday as models
struggle to acknowledge weak ridging.

Also of note, radiational fog formation will be prevalent during the
early mornings throughout the first half of the extended period
under the mostly clear skies and light winds.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

With dry air dominating thru the low and mid-levels, VFR will
prevail at IWD/CMX/SAW thru this fcst period. However, given the
quiet conditions and longer nights at this time of year, shallow
radiation fog will develop once again, similar to recent nights. SAW
has the better chance of seeing shallow fog development as lake
breeze yesterday brought higher dwpts to the terminal and vcnty.
Maintained a mention of MVFR in the 09-13z time frame, but there is
some potential of IFR as well. With sfc high pres over the area,
winds thru the period at all terminals will be light, under 10kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper Michigan will remain under high pressure for most of the
forecast period. Therefore, winds will remain at or below 20
knots into Monday. However, winds will quickly increase to 20
to 30 knots late Monday and will persistently stay there through
Wednesday. There will be some variation in wind direction from
southwest to northwest late Monday, then back to southwest again
Tuesday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...TDUD