170
FXUS63 KMQT 250816
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
416 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog ends within an hour or two after sunrise. Some
  areas of fog may be dense at times, reducing visibilities to
  1/2 mile or less.

- Dry weather is expected this week into the weekend.

- Temperatures trend to well above normal into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 414 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Current RAP analysis shows the 1006mb low centered over Lower MI
underneath a shortwave. This is currently lighting up the radar
returns over northern Lower MI and the far eastern UP as light
showers lift through Luce County. The stronger mid level features
include mid level trough over northwestern Ontario, an additional
trough over the Mid Mississippi Valley, and a strong ridge over the
Rockies. The showers over the east will continue to lift north
through Sunrise as the low moves toward Lake Huron. These showers
alongside the low cloud deck are keeping temps warmer in the east in
the mid to upper 50s. In contrast, a drier airmass to the west has
limited mid level clouds ahead of the trough to the northwest. Thus,
radiative cooling under these clear skies has allowed for temps to
fall into the low 40s. With the strong inversion in place and light
winds, this set up has resulted in patchy fog development across the
west half. Some of this fog has been dense at times, particularly
along the WI/MI state line where visibilities have periodically
dropped down to 1/2 miles or less. While a few spots may dip into
the mid to upper 30s ahead of sunrise, fog may limit cooling. Patchy
fog is likely to prevail through a hour or two of sunrise.

As the low pressure lifts north over Lake Huron to northern Ontario
this morning and low level winds turn northwest, showers diminish
and are forced east out of the CWA. Some scattered low level clouds
may accompany the eastward progressing trough to the north, but
mostly sunny skies and dry weather is expected today as the mid
level ridge progresses east toward the Great Lakes. Temps warm above
normal today, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70. Also, mixing this
afternoon may result in some west winds gusting up to 20 mph in the
Keweenaw.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a
ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes region 12z Wed. Ridging then moves into the northern
plains by 00z Thu and builds into the upper Great Lakes after 00z
Fri. Dry weather continues through Friday.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over the
mid Mississippi Valley with a ridge over most of the rest of the
U.S. 12z Sat which remains the same through 12z Sun. By 12z Mon, a
trough moves into the northern plains which then moves into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Tue. Temperatures look to be above normal
through the period with a cooling trend on Tuesday. Went dry for
pops Sat night through Sun night with high pressure in the area.
Starting Monday, pops start to show up in the forecast, but thinking
is they might be overdone a tad bit especially with upper level
ridging in the area which is strong. Only fly in the ointment is a
sfc cold front stalled out over the area Monday which looks to start
off dry anyway before upper troughing starts to affect the area
Tuesday. Confidence is low with pops on Monday and would like to
trim back pops on Tuesday as they seem overdone due to strength of
upper ridge, but will leave alone for now as manual progs show a
cold front moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR is expected to prevail thru this fcst period at CMX. At SAW,
radiational fog should develop under mostly clear skies and little
to no wind. IWD is already seeing patchy fog down to LIFR/IFR
levels, which likely will persist until around sunrise. As with
previous fcst, kept a mention of MVFR at SAW overnight. While there
is some potential for IFR or even LIFR, light northwesterly low-
level flow is not typically favorable for such development. If fog
does develop, it will dissipate within 2 hrs after sunrise. Light
winds under 5kt overnight will become W to NW to around 10kt today,
but wind will become NNE at SAW in the aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

With a persistent benign pattern over the area, the wind will stay
at or below 20 knots for this forecast period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Jablonski/Rolfson
MARINE...07