883
FXUS66 KMTR 201225
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
525 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of
the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages
by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough
impacts the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Stratus coverage is less widespread tonight with the Fort Ord
profiler showing the marine layer nearly mixed out. That being said
persistence is key and stratus has developed along the coastline of
the Monterey Bay and San Francisco Peninsula. Similar to the past
few days, stratus coverage is expected to dissipate by mid-morning
with sunny skies through the afternoon. Gusty to gale force winds
over the coastal waters should keep the marine layer well mixed and
see stratus coverage limited to the coastline for the next few days.
There is a low potential (less than 10%) for drizzle in coastal
areas tonight with up to trace accumulations possible.

Inland temperatures will remain seasonal to slightly above average
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations across the North
and East Bays may see highs reach the low 80s. Along the coast,
stratus will continue to limit daytime warming with temperatures
slightly below average in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Over the coastal waters, gustier, northerly winds continue through
the end of the week. The marine layer will stay fairly well mixed
for the next few days with stratus confined along the coast and
minimal stratus impacts inland. Slight warming trend through mid-
week caused by weaker onshore flow and increasingly northerly winds
inland remains on track. Ensemble guidance and the NBM are in
agreement that Tuesday will be the warmest day this week with
temperatures reaching into the mid 80s. There is fairly good
agreement that high temperatures will stay in the mid 80`s but NBM
90th percentile does show a few sites in the North Bay reaching the
upper 80s (88-89 degree range). In comparison to yesterday`s
forecast, Tuesday high temperatures have increased by a few degrees
from the low to mid 80`s to predominantly in the mid 80s. Minor heat
risk is expected throughout most of the Bay Area and Central Coast
(Santa Cruz Mountains, Salinas Valley, portions of the Monterey
Peninsula) Monday through Wednesday as slightly above average
temperatures persist. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat
should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty
of water.

Temperatures will cool down by the late week as a stronger upper
level trough moves inland Friday/Saturday. This systems looks fairly
dry with ensemble guidance indicating very low chances of
accumulating precipitation with it. CPC guidance continues to
indicate predominantly below average temperatures and slightly above
average precipitation through the end of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will
see MVFR CIGs through the mid morning.  Expect light to moderate
winds  overnight for most areas overnight. Moderate winds build into
Monday afternoon, with gusty winds expected along the immediate
coast and around the SF Bay. Winds reduce into the night with some
coastal stratus and MVFR CIGs around the Monterey Bay building
into Tuesday.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect moderate west
winds overnight. Gusty westerly winds arrive Monday afternoon with
peak gusts around 25 kts. These winds reduce into the early night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs linger into the mid morning.
Expect light winds overnight with more moderate westerly winds
arriving Monday afternoon and lasting into the night. Periods of
inconsistent MVFR CIGs return into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Strong and gusty northwesterly winds will continue over much of
the coastal waters with only slight reductions in wind speed over
the inner coastal waters this morning. Expect hazardous
conditions and steeper wind waves during the week. Winds look to
ease late in the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea