Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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896 FXUS66 KMTR 271725 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1025 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week. Afternoon highs slightly above normal on tap for next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 913 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 It`s May and this morning was still gray. Morning satellite imagery showed a solid marine layer push overnight (1300-1800 feet deep). In fact, maybe a little more of a inland push than advertised on yesterday`s model guidance. Nonetheless, most recent satellite imagery shows some thinning along the inland edges of the marine layer stratus. Latest guidance from the HRRR captures this thinning well and indicates this trend will continue through 11 AM. Even though inland areas will clear, coastal areas on the other hand will hold onto stratus through out the day. Probably not the best beach day. If you do head to the beach, be mindful of the cold waters. Recent upwelling and persistent NW winds has led to chilly coastal water temps. No update needed this morning...will be monitoring stratus clearing and adjust if needed. MM && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 A Deja Vu Monday for most as far as high temperatures go. A few locations in the interior have the potential to be a couple of degrees warmer. Summer time ridge pattern in full effect to round out the holiday weekend. Marine layer remains intact through the day near coastal areas with the associated stratus retreating to the coastline by mid-to-late morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Tranquil weather through the work week with stratus clearing to the coast each morning. A progressive, deep upper low traverses through the Pacific NW midweek to flatten the ridge a bit. This will keep any further warming at bay through the middle of the week, but isn`t expected to bring any other notable change to the weather. As this feature departs, the ridge builds back and a secondary warming trend continues into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions with satellite showing clearing should happen shortly after 18Z for all terminals. VFR will prevail through the remainder of the day with a return of low clouds starting with Monterey Bay terminals early this evening, followed by the remainder of terminals through the night. VFR will return near 16-17Z tomorrow morning. Onshore winds will become moderate to relatively breezy by the afternoon with possible gusty winds through gaps and passes before becoming light to moderate overnight. Vicinity of SFO...VFR as ceilings have eroded. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon with gusts to around 22kt before returning to moderate by the night. Low to moderate confidence on low MVFR clouds over the terminal tonight but high confidence that stratus will surround the airport around 10-11Z with clearing near 16-17Z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR conditions linger but ceilings are expected to clear between 18-19Z. Stratus will have a early return of MVFR-IFR ceilings this evening. Onshore winds will become breezy this afternoon before returning to light to moderate overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 913 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Northwest winds begin to ease slightly today over the coastal waters with a fresh to strong breeze continuing over the outer waters. Winds increase into the middle of the week as an upper low moves through the Pacific Northwest. Wave heights beginning to increase by the middle of the work week up to 11 to 13 feet. Otherwise mostly quiet marine conditions through the forecast period. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...SO MARINE...SO Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea