587
FXUS66 KMTR 181956
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1256 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with
gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week.
Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the
coast by mid-to-late morning each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon ranging from
the upper 50`s to mid 60`s at the coast to upper 60`s to mid 70`s
across the interior (a few spots may reach into the upper 70`s).
This is as a weak, dry frontal boundary moves across the region.
Tonight, expecting less in the way of drizzle however cannot be
ruled out in typically favored locations. Temperatures overnight
will range from the mid 40`s to mid 50`s.

In wake of today`s frontal passage, expecting tomorrow to be
slightly warmer across the interior as low clouds will likely be
quicker to dissipate. Thus, tomorrow we should see more upper 70`s
inland while cooler conditions prevail near the coast (upper 50`s to
mid 60`s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Sunday night, we are expecting a greater potential for coastal
drizzle across the San Francisco Peninsula and coastal areas of the
Central Coast. A gradual warming trend is expected from Monday into
Wednesday as the region remains between a ridge out over the Pacific
and troughing to the east-northeast. Therefore, expecting more of
the interior to reach the lower 80`s by Tuesday which is forecast to
be the warmest day of the week. Meanwhile, low stratus will keep
conditions cooler at the coast.

Toward the latter half of the week, look for deeper troughing to
directly impact the region. This will bring temperatures back below
seasonal averages by Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions, other than
overnight coastal drizzle, are expected to prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Stratus this morning is bringing IFR/MVFR conditions to many
terminals. However, as stratus continues to recede and clearing
begins later this morning, expect VFR conditions to return for most
terminals. Winds to be onshore and breezy to moderate, reaching to
around 12-15 knots for most terminals this afternoon. Winds weaken
into the late night to become light, and stratus returns to a select
few coastal terminals (predominantly Monterey Bay) bringing MVFR/IFR
conditions. Terminals further inland are not expected to see much in
the way of impacts from stratus. However, the North Bay is likely to
see fog development in the early morning of Sunday, leading to
IFR/LIFR conditions.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions return late this morning as stratus
recedes. Winds increase out of the west this afternoon to around 13
knots. At this time, low confidence in CIGs returning this evening
as a result of stratus. Highest confidence is in the development of
FEW-SCT low clouds filtering in through the Golden Gate and San
Bruno gaps, but maintaining VFR conditions through the overnight.
Winds light overnight, increasing Sunday afternoon to become breezy
once more.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions linger into the early
afternoon today until stratus clears briefly to allow for VFR
conditions. VFR is likely to last only a few hours with a few low
clouds continuing to dot the sky despite clearing. Winds breezy and
onshore around 15 knots. Stratus pushes inland to bring a return of
MVFR CIGs in the early evening. Through the overnight, CIGs are
expected to lower to become IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 854 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Winds out of the north strengthen to become strong and slowly
spread over the outer waters through the weekend. These stronger
winds are expected to last through most of the upcoming work week.
Gale force gusts build in the far northern waters today and are
expected to last through at least Monday. Expect hazardous
conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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