550
FXUS66 KMTR 272043
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
143 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week.
Afternoon highs slightly above normal on tap for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 123 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024
(This evening through Tuesday)

Interesting current weather situation around the Bay Area and
Central Coast. It`s all about the details. Generally speaking,
morning marine layer was slow to clear back to the coast and for
the coast clouds never cleared. As for the details, moderate
onshore flow (SFO-SAC) and falling 500 mb heights likely
contributed to the slow clearing of morning clouds. If one were to
overlay the morning layer footprint and 24 hour trends one would
see cooler temps today where the marine layer had some influence.
Areas outside of the marine layer footprint are running a little
warmer than yesterday.

Heading into Tuesday - the marine layer lurking along the coast
will move inland again so no drastic change with overall sensible
weather from the last few nights. One change will be the longwave
pattern overhead. The ridge the brought our recent warmup will
flatten as a broad upper level trough sweeps through the PacNW.
The flattening ridge will keep the marine layer established with
overall cooling temperatures, still below seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 140 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 (Tuesday night through next
Sunday)

The cooling trend will be short-lived as the flattened ridge
begins to build back over the region with warming 850 mb temps and
rising 500 mb heights. Still looks like night/morning clouds with
inland afternoon sunshine will persist. The warming trend will
continue into next weekend. Far inland locations will reach the
low 90s by week`s end. The interior warmth on Friday will lead to
moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions with satellite showing clearing
should happen shortly after 18Z for all terminals. VFR will prevail
through the remainder of the day with a return of low clouds
starting with Monterey Bay terminals early this evening, followed by
the remainder of terminals through the night. VFR will return near
16-17Z tomorrow morning. Onshore winds will become moderate to
relatively breezy by the afternoon with possible gusty winds through
gaps and passes before becoming light to moderate overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR as ceilings have eroded. Breezy onshore winds
this afternoon with gusts to around 22kt before returning to
moderate by the night. Low to moderate confidence on low MVFR clouds
over the terminal tonight but high confidence that stratus will
surround the airport around 10-11Z with clearing near 16-17Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR conditions linger but ceilings are
expected to clear between 18-19Z. Stratus will have a early return
of MVFR-IFR ceilings this evening. Onshore winds will become breezy
this afternoon before returning to light to moderate overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 913 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Northwest winds begin to ease slightly today over the coastal
waters with a fresh to strong breeze continuing over the outer
waters. Winds increase into the middle of the week as an upper
low moves through the Pacific Northwest. Wave heights beginning
to increase by the middle of the work week up to 11 to 13 feet.
Otherwise mostly quiet marine conditions through the forecast
period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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