Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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294 FXUS63 KOAX 261850 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dry conditions will continue into Monday. - A cold front will sweep through the area Monday afternoon / evening with highs in the 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Tonight through this weekend: A large-scale blocking pattern will persist across much of the CONUS through the weekend. The primary components of that pattern are a deep-layer low east of the MS River Valley, which will be enhanced by the remains of hurricane Helene, and a ridge over the central and southern Rockies into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. We will reside within the transition zone between those two regimes with continued dry and warm conditions expected. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s, some 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Monday through Wednesday: An amplifying short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks are forecast to move through central Canada and the north-central U.S. Monday into Monday night with a related, surface cold front surging south through the mid MO Valley. The 12z global models indicate the front moving through the area Monday afternoon and evening with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast ahead of it. Moisture will remain limited with a dry frontal passage anticipated. A cooler, continental-polar air mass will overspread the region behind the front with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s forecast on Tuesday. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level flow pattern will transition to quasi-zonal with a strengthening warm advection pattern developing in the low levels. Highs on Wednesday are expected to bounce back into the 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with little to no cloudiness. Similar to this morning, some patchy fog is possible Friday morning, especially in the vicinity of KOMA. However, confidence in any visibility reduction is too low to include in the forecast. South-southeast winds will increase to 10-12 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 18 kt possible at KOFK. Winds will diminish this evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Mead