Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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741 FXUS63 KOAX 222259 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 559 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low chance (20-30%) of showers Tuesday; otherwise mostly dry conditions through Thursday. - Complex weather pattern late in the week, as upper low interacts with tropical system, could affect longer range precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mostly cloudy skies hold through this afternoon with northerly winds keeping temperatures cool. Temperatures across the area in the afternoon are staying in the 60s. The band of moisture convergence generating showers continues to hang across southeastern Nebraska, leading to scattered light rain showers. This band will continue to hang over this area through tonight, becoming more and more isolated by Monday morning. Monday, for the first full day of Fall, should be a very nice day with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Skies will be clearing through the morning hours as the anticyclonic side of the trough moves over the area, leading to isentropic decent. The next trough arrives out of the northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing a chance for some scattered showers starting after midnight Monday night. Moisture will be limited ahead of this system, with the bulk of moisture from the Gulf getting cut off by the stalled front across Texas and Arkansas. Any rainfall amounts through Tuesday should be light. A strong upper-level ridge building in on Wednesday will bring back clear skies. This will allow temperatures to get up into the upper 70s to near 80 Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, the Tuesday trough pinches off from the mean flow and meanders over the KS/MO/OK/AR region. The forecast going into this weekend is somewhat uncertain as models have this cut-off Low interacting with a developing tropical system that moves up into the eastern Gulf-Coast States late Thursday or Friday. Depending on how this interacts with the cut-off Low, we could see chances for showers return Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Scattered to broken clouds at FL120 will gradually break up overnight in southeast Nebraska. A scattered rain shower this evening cannot be ruled out, though the chances are low (15% chance). Calm northerly winds will shift to southerly around 13-15Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Wood