Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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153 FXUS63 KOAX 262315 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dry conditions will continue into Monday. - A cold front will sweep through the area Monday afternoon / evening with highs in the 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Tonight through this weekend: A large-scale blocking pattern will persist across much of the CONUS through the weekend. The primary components of that pattern are a deep-layer low east of the MS River Valley, which will be enhanced by the remains of hurricane Helene, and a ridge over the central and southern Rockies into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. We will reside within the transition zone between those two regimes with continued dry and warm conditions expected. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s, some 8-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Monday through Wednesday: An amplifying short-wave trough and attending mid/upper-level jet streaks are forecast to move through central Canada and the north-central U.S. Monday into Monday night with a related, surface cold front surging south through the mid MO Valley. The 12z global models indicate the front moving through the area Monday afternoon and evening with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast ahead of it. Moisture will remain limited with a dry frontal passage anticipated. A cooler, continental-polar air mass will overspread the region behind the front with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s forecast on Tuesday. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level flow pattern will transition to quasi-zonal with a strengthening warm advection pattern developing in the low levels. Highs on Wednesday are expected to bounce back into the 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions favored through the period with some passing high clouds at times. Winds should remain under 10 kts, out of the southeast overnight and north to northeast during the day Friday. Clear skies and light winds overnight suggest there could be some patchy fog development Friday morning, especially in river valleys including near OMA, but most guidance currently suggests we`ll remain clear, so did not include mention. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...CA