976
FXUS64 KOHX 221722
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A few showers and storms were moving across far northern portions
of Middle TN. More storms were firing up back across West TN and
AR. Look for all this activity to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon out ahead of a cold front and surface
trough. Our most significant coverage and severe risk will come in
the 3 PM to 11 PM time frame as the storms from out west move our
way while coming together to form a possible MCS. Whether
individual cells or an MCS, the main concern this afternoon and
evening will be damaging winds. Some hail is possible. Very heavy
downpours should be expected, but the storms will be moving fast
enough to keep any flooding brief. Capes in our west are already
running over 2000 J/kg and short range models show values peaking
near 4000. Deep layer shear will approach 45kt, so the storms will
have a lot of energy. Thankfully low level shear is not favorable
for tornadoes, but the risk is not zero.

Thunderstorms will move east and gradually weaken late in the
evening. Some additional storms are possible overnight into
Thursday morning, but these are not expected to produce widespread
severe wx.

During the daytime Thursday, additional scattered storms will
form. Conditions will become unstable again, so severe wx is a
possibility. The setup does not look as organized for Thursday,
but still, a few storms may contain gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We continue to be concerned about stormy wx all the way through Memorial
Day. We will be in an unsettled pattern with west southwest flow
aloft bringing a series of waves across the region. The air will
continue to be unstable and moisture-rich with a deep tropical
connection. The holiday weekend will not be a total washout. There
will be periods of time and perhaps some entire days when the
balmy early summer wx beckons us outdoors. But, we must stay wx
aware, because the periods of thunderstorms could bring bouts of
severe wx and localized flooding with generally increasing hazard
potential through the weekend. Sunday and Memorial Day look the
worst at this point with all modes of severe wx in play including
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

Overall, there are a lot of moving parts in this forecast, so the
storm outlooks and forecast details are likely to need adjustment
each day. Have fun but stay aware! A drier, cooler, and much less
humid pattern is ahead just after Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Terminals will be VFR through the morning hours. Scattered showers
and storms will develop during the afternoon with the highest
chances at CKV where a tempo group was included. Confidence is not
as high at BNA/MQY so PROB30 groups were maintained during the
late afternoon/evening hours. If a terminal is impacted by a
shower or storm, visibilities could be reduced to MVFR or IFR.
S/SSW winds will increase to around 10 kts by late morning and
decrease again below 5 kts after 23/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  68  83  67 /  90 100  80  80
Clarksville    82  66  81  66 /  90  90  80  80
Crossville     80  63  77  62 /  30  70  80  70
Columbia       86  66  82  65 /  80  70  90  70
Cookeville     81  65  78  64 /  50  80  80  70
Jamestown      81  63  78  62 /  40  80  80  60
Lawrenceburg   85  67  81  66 /  60  70  80  70
Murfreesboro   85  66  83  65 /  60  80  80  80
Waverly        83  65  82  66 /  90  80  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan