860
FXUS64 KOHX 250532
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1232 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Outside of a few light showers that are pushing east over the
Plateau we will see quiet conditions for the evening. It will
remain humid with dew points in the mid to upper 60s.

Things are going to get more active as we head into the
overnight though. Our focus will shift to thunderstorm activity
over MO/AR. This activity will push southeast along an
instability gradient that runs from around St. Louis southeast to
around the TN River to Huntsville. We should see this gradient
gradually build northeast over the next several hours and make it
to around I-24. The potential for strong storms tonight will be
along and west of the instability gradient, generally I-24 west
in our area. The convection will remain elevated across the whole
area and that will limit the severe potential but mid-level lapse
rates should be enough from some of a hail threat and still can`t
rule out isolated gusty winds. PWATs will be above an inch and
heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. To the east of
the instability gradient thunderstorms are still expected but CAPE
will be less and the threat for strong storms is low.

The line of thunderstorms will likely make it to our northwest
after 1 am pushing into the Nashville area between 3 and 5 am
with the line pushing out of our area by 8 am or so. Things then
look dry out for the morning with the possiblity of additional
scattered storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Shortwave upstream is producing the wakening area of showers and
thunderstorms that is attempting to move across our southwestern
counties. This area should continue to weaken. However, convective
temperatures will again get breached this afternoon with
additional development expected. Strong to severe activity will be
largely cape dependent. Otherwise, afternoon forcing looks a
little sub par, instability is moderate, 850 mb speeds are 25 kt
at most.

There will be a dissipating boundary on approach later tonight. This
activity appears to be the reason for our slight risk into our far
west. Phasing of instability and forcing looks really good back
toward the MS River. However, these levels drop off toward the east
and thus much of our area is only in a marginal. Nevertheless,
toward sunrise these storms may hold together with wind and hail
being the primary threat. Also, helicity values are still in the 100-
200 range so cant rule out a spinner or two. Isolated rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches could occur with the strongest storms.

Moving on, Saturday appears to offer somewhat of a break as
forcing/organization looks very weak. This break may hold on through
Sunday morning as we pick up on some mid/upper level ridging and a
temperature increase of a few degrees at those levels. The break,
however, will come to an end as the main thrust of severe
potential kicks in in the afternoon and particularly overnight.
The phasing of high cape and high shear looks particularly
alarming during that late afternoon and early evening timeframe.
Mid level lapse rates of over 8C are noted on the gfs. All facets
of severe potential will be on the table. Average rainfall amounts
look like an inch or so but isolated area could again eclipse the
2" level.

For the near term temps, look for warm summerlike conditions with
lows mid to upper 60s and highs upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

In the extended forecast, there appears to be a final cold frontal
boundary that will not work through the area until Monday night.
Hence, isolated to scattered non severe activity could linger into
your Monday. Following this, the drier and cooler air will win out
as a surface high builds down from the north. This should keep us
dry through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning
to near and eventually below normal for late May/early June. Low
temps for both Wednesday and Thursday nights will be well down into
the 50s. Highs in the 70s with less humid conditions. A very nice
break from the warm and muggy conditons we`ve been experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours. A line of
thunderstorms currently over Missouri and Kentucky will eventually
push southeast into the area, bringing impacts to CKV, BNA, and
MQY starting around 09Z and pushing further east to later impact
SRB and CSV between 10Z-12Z. Storms will bring heavy rain and
gusty winds, reducing vis during impact and temporarily bringing
MVFR cigs in. Winds behind the storms will be out of the SW
around 5 kts.

For Saturday afternoon, pop-up thunderstorms are possible, but
activity looks widely scattered. Because of that, going to
leave TS mention out of the taf for this cycle. Will likely
include VCTS next cycle for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  69  91  72 /  50  20  50  90
Clarksville    83  68  89  70 /  30  20  50  90
Crossville     81  63  84  64 /  80  20  30  90
Columbia       86  68  90  68 /  50  30  40  90
Cookeville     81  65  85  66 /  80  20  40  90
Jamestown      81  63  84  65 /  70  20  40  90
Lawrenceburg   85  67  89  68 /  60  20  40  90
Murfreesboro   86  67  90  68 /  60  20  40  90
Waverly        84  68  89  68 /  30  20  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Baggett