651
FXUS66 KOTX 241924
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1224 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across northeast Washington and north Idaho
through the early morning. Friday will feature warmer
temperatures with chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Saturday will be cooler with breezy winds and light
precipitation. Dry weather returns on Sunday with temperatures
warming into the 70s to low 80s on Memorial Day. A return of cool,
wet weather is expected to return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Saturday: The morning will be benign for most across
the region. Lingering showers will continue over North Idaho
through mid morning as yesterdays shortwave continues to slide
East. Ensembles are in good agreement for another system impacting
the region Friday afternoon. A Gulf of Alaska Low will bring a
shortwave into the Pacific Northwest. It will shift the upper
level flow pattern from Northwest to Southwest. Ensembles are
showing a decent plume of moisture and instability moving over
Southeast Washington and the Lower Idaho Panhandle including
Lewiston. Thunderstorm timing is expected to be around 1PM-6PM. A
weaker area is once again Northeast Washington and the North Idaho
Panhandle. Impacts include gusty winds, small hail, and
lightning. Precip in these areas could reach up to 0.2". The rest
of the region could see an isolated rain shower with little to no
accumulation. Highs for the day will be in the 60s and low 70s.
Lows will be in the 40s.

For Saturday, the region will transition to a zonal flow pattern
as the trough shifts East. Any shower activity will mainly be over
the mountain areas of the Inland Northwest. The threat of
thunderstorms is weaker than Friday but can`t rule out an isolated
lightning strike with these showers. will be cooler than Friday
with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Lows will be in the upper 30s
and 40s. /JDC

Sunday through Thursday: Zonal westerly flow will prevail on Sunday,
resulting in mainly dry conditions with the exception of a 30
percent chance of afternoon showers over orographically favored
areas - i.e., the Cascade Crest and higher terrain right along the
Canadian border. We`ll wake up to rather chilly temperatures Sunday
morning in the mid to upper 30s, but after sunrise we will quickly
warm to temperatures that are more typical for this time of year in
the 60s and 70s.

A ridge will begin to amplify over the region on Monday, squashing
any remaining shower chances and sending temperatures well into the
70s and even low 80s for some spots. With a light breeze of 5 to 15
mph and mostly sunny skies, Monday will be a beautiful day for any
outdoor plans. Temperatures on Tuesday will be even warmer than
those on Monday, and highs nearing 90 won`t be out of the question
for the deep Columbia Basin southeast of Moses Lake. Current
ensembles are giving this area a 10 to 20 percent chance of hitting
the 90s on Tuesday.

A cold front is expected to move through sometime in the Tuesday
afternoon/evening timeframe, bringing returning chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Southeast WA, northeast WA, and the Idaho
Panhandle have a 30 percent chance of seeing convective showers and
thunderstorm development Tuesday.

Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will drop back
down to seasonal normals in the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday and
Thursday. A trough tracking through southern BC will likely bring
chances for showers along the border each afternoon through the end
of the week. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Upper level trough dropping into the region will result
in building cumulus clouds through the afternoon with spotty
showers across the northern mountains and extreme SE WA and the
lower Idaho Panhandle. There is a 10-20% chance for t-storms
around the Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie. For Lewiston proper,
percentages are closer to 10% leading to low confidence to include
in the 18Z TAFS. Energy with the upper-level disturbance will
swing through overnight with a band of showers but largely VFR
skies. Added prob30 groups to account for this activity. This will
also come with a 20-40% chance for brief MVFR ceilings with the
highest probabilities along an axis from Pullman,WA to Mullan, ID.
Winds will remain elevated overnight at 10-15 mph. Winds will
continue to increase on Saturday mainly after 18z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is moderate confidence (50% chance) for showers at times
across the Idaho Panhandle, Northeastern WA, and between the Blue
Mountains and Camas Prairie. Confidence is low for lightning
coverage as any storms come off the higher terrain of NE OR into
the lower Idaho Panhandle. A few models indicate a small potential
(10%) for a few lightning strikes overnight with the showers.
Confidence is low for MVFR conditions overnight given the
increasing winds. Feel best chances will be around St Maries,
Kellogg, and Mullan.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  45  60  39  65  45 /  10  30  40  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  66  46  57  40  62  44 /  20  40  60  10   0   0
Pullman        65  43  56  38  63  43 /  30  60  30  10   0   0
Lewiston       72  51  65  44  71  49 /  40  70  30   0   0   0
Colville       67  40  59  34  64  38 /  40  40  80  20  10   0
Sandpoint      63  44  55  40  60  42 /  40  60  80  40   0   0
Kellogg        63  46  54  41  60  45 /  30  60  70  30   0   0
Moses Lake     72  44  68  39  72  45 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      68  46  64  44  69  48 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Omak           70  46  66  39  72  45 /  20  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$