Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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101 FXUS64 KOUN 201821 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 121 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 POPS for late this afternoon were increased slightly for many areas north of I-40. With continual moisture advection into central Oklahoma and decreasing clouds and the approach of the mid-level wave from NM, chances are greater than near zero. Still, storms in this region are expected to be isolated with possibly a few more closer to Kansas. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 - Hot/humid conditions continue through Saturday, followed by cooler weather starting Sunday. - A few isolated storms possible over northern Oklahoma this afternoon, with the potential for a severe downburst or two. - Medium chances for showers and storms Saturday night through Monday morning associated with a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Friday will be another hot day, featuring near record high temperatures (upper 90s / lower 100s). With humidity, heat indices will range from about 102 to 107 degrees. HREF guidance suggests most of our eastern counties will have a 40-70% chance of hitting heat advisory criteria. Winds will remain light. An upper high centered over central Texas will keep most of the area mostly sunny. A few isolated storms may form in parts of northern Oklahoma this afternoon, along the northern periphery of the upper high. Environment is not too impressive in regard to organized convection, but could support a strong downburst or two. Friday night will continue the warm and humid theme with lows in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. Day && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The week will end with one more hot day (though slightly less hot than Friday). An upper low swinging up through the four corners region through Colorado will support increasing chances for showers and storms in northwest Oklahoma Saturday night. As this low continues to lift, rain chances will spread across the area Sunday and Sunday night. A cold front will sweep through the forecast area on Sunday, providing some focus for this convection and bringing cooler temperatures behind it. Overall, the synoptic setup looks supportive of a few strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening with modest instability and deep layer shear predicted. High PWATs will mean we will need to watch for a heavy rain and flooding potential as well. Sunday looks to feature a tight temperature gradient with cooler temperatures generally in the 80s northwest of I-44 and some lingering 90s southeast of that boundary. By Monday, the entire forecast area will have dropped into the 70s and low 80s. These cooler temperatures should continue through much of next week. Another system is supposed to swing through the central plains on Tuesday, though there is considerably more uncertainty with that one. Models differ as to whether to cut off the low before it traverses Oklahoma. For now, we`ll continue with 20-40% PoPs on Tuesday / Tuesday night associated with this system. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of isolated thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma late this afternoon and early evening. Winds will be southerly with occasional gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 96 73 88 / 0 0 10 40 Hobart OK 72 97 71 86 / 0 0 20 50 Wichita Falls TX 73 98 74 93 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 71 95 61 74 / 20 30 60 50 Ponca City OK 76 98 71 86 / 20 10 40 60 Durant OK 74 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013- 018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ090. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...09