Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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176 FXUS64 KOUN 211920 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - 60-80% shower/storm chances tonight through Monday morning. Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday afternoon & evening. - Marginal to slight risk for localized flooding tonight into Sunday, highest across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. - Below average temperatures Sunday into much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Water vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper level low progressing eastward across eastern Arizona early this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, large scale ascent is supporting widespread showers and storms across eastern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles, with a few storms making it into northwest Oklahoma. More substantial shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to move into western Oklahoma tonight as a cold front makes its way south and eastward. A few of these storms could be strong this afternoon, but the majority of severe weather is expected to remain to our west this afternoon and evening. As the front continues its way southward and the upper low moves closer to the area, showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress across more of the area during the day on Sunday. Frontal timing has sped up over the previous forecast which will have implications on the temperature forecast and where severe potential will be highest tomorrow afternoon. It appears that instability will be highest near and SE of the I-44 corridor which is where we may see redevelopment or intensification of ongoing convection tomorrow afternoon. The main hazards with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Similar hazards are possible further west tomorrow morning with convection expected to be ongoing along and north of the front. Given forecast PWATs of 1.5-2.0" heavy rainfall will also be possible much of the day tomorrow. Given steering flow is fairly parallel to the front we may see training of thunderstorms in some locations which could lead to a localized flooding threat. However, given the lack of recent rainfall our 1 and 3 hour flash flood thresholds are rather high (2.5 to 4 inches) which will mitigate the risk overall. As of now the highest overall heavy rain threat appears to be across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where thunderstorm activity is expected to be most numerous and persistent. Finally, the cold front is expected to bring much cooler temperatures in its wake, with portions of northwest Oklahoma likely stuck in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the day tomorrow, with a tight temperature gradient expected across southwest into central Oklahoma. Forecasting exactly where this gradient will be located is difficult, but it is quite possible that some locations in central and southwest Oklahoma see steady or even falling temperatures during the afternoon as the front passes through. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Rain chances diminish Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as the front pushes further south of the area. Cooler temperatures are expected to stick around for much of the coming week, with highs 5- 10 degrees below average for this time of year as a trough remains over the central US. As shortwave energy digs across the central plains and attempts to form another cutoff low, parts of the area could see additional chances for showers and storms. However, models still show significant disagreement on the track of this next system and uncertainty is higher than normal at this range. This system may then linger in the vicinity late next week, maintaining cooler temperatures and potentially more rain chances for parts of the area. Ware && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected through early this evening before an upper system introduces increasing potential for precipitation and lowered category. Scattered showers and storms are expected to emerge near/just after 2100 UTC across northwest Oklahoma. KWWR may not experience impact to category until after 0200 UTC/22nd, when MVFR cigs/vis are at least intermittently expected. Thunder chances will spread slowly eastward through the overnight, possibly impacting terminals as far east as KCSM to KPNC during the period. A surface front is also expected to push from northwest-to- southeast through the overnight. A northwest wind shift is expected as this occurs along with potential for MVFR (to perhaps IFR) cigs. While the front may push towards/near the I-44 corridor by daybreak Sunday, concern for lowered category may remain further northwest (KWWR/KCSM) through the end of the period. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 96 70 80 56 / 0 20 70 80 Hobart OK 97 68 75 52 / 10 50 80 60 Wichita Falls TX 99 74 88 58 / 0 10 50 60 Gage OK 95 57 63 46 / 50 90 50 10 Ponca City OK 98 68 77 55 / 10 50 70 60 Durant OK 97 73 92 63 / 0 0 10 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ032-043-047-048- 051-052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...34