Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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677 FXUS64 KOUN 261828 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 128 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Seasonable and dry weather is expected through the weekend. - A cold front is expected early next week, though impactful weather is not currently anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Clear skies are expected again tonight as the primary circulation + outflow channels of Helene stay off to our east. Lows will again drop into the 50s across the area. Fog last night was fairly minimal, and with models showing a similar or even a slightly drier environment, no fog was added into the gridded forecast. The sun will stay out across most of the area tomorrow. Helene`s outflow channel does get closer on some guidance, so patchy to broken cirrus is possible across central Oklahoma. However, the RDPS (usually pretty good when it comes to cloud modeling) keeps the cirrus much further to the east. With this in mind, and with temperatures today so far outpacing NBM by several degrees in central Oklahoma in particular, tomorrow`s highs have been bumped by a degree or two compared to today`s forecast. The one potentially more noticeable sensible difference in the forecast tomorrow compared to today is that northerly winds will be maybe 5 mph stronger on average due to Helene`s impact on the pressure gradient. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The remnants of Hurricane Helene will have phased with an upper low centered over the Mississippi Valley by Friday night. This upper low and the remnants of Helene will remain nearly stationary through the weekend while weakening, leaving the area on the western periphery of a modest northerly flow regime. Model guidance keeps all precipitation associated with Helene to the east of the region. Scattered to broken high clouds are expected over much of the CWA on Saturday along with a breezy northwesterly flow with gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and comfortable lows in the 50s (northwest) to around 60 (southeast) can be expected through the weekend. Mid 80s to low 90s are expected on Monday before a cold front approaches from the north Tuesday morning, leading to comfortable highs in the 70s across central and northern zones on Tuesday and lows Tuesday night approaching the upper 40s over northern zones. No precipitation is expected from the front. Highs are expected to rebound into the 80s area-wide by midweek. Chiappa && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the forecast period. Weak high pressure across the Midwest Region will result in north-northeast surface winds up to 10 kts across our terminals, then going light and variable after 00Z. North surface winds start increasing late in the forecast and becoming gusty. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 56 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 56 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 58 89 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 54 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 54 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 58 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...68