399
FXUS64 KOUN 201108
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
608 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Thunderstorm activity should exit the eastern portions of our
forecast area between 4 am and 6 am, but with satellite/radar
trends continuing to develop mid-level cloud/shower enhancements
just east of I-35, will continue some low pops over Hughes down
into Atoka counties for an hour or so past sunrise. No severe
weather will be expected by that time. Thereafter, 850-700mb jet
streak will shift to our east and we should see modest height
rises through the day. Forecast will not include any thunderstorm
chances, at least greater than 10 percent, but with at least upper
60 dewpoints and broad lower level convergence east and southeast
of northwest Oklahoma surface low, cannot rule out a stray storm
this afternoon across northern Oklahoma. Something we will monitor
and hopefully CAMs can give us a headsup on the potential.

Mild night again tonight with winds staying up and mid to upper 60
dewpoints not going anywhere, except maybe far northwest/west
central Oklahoma near the dryline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Models continue to trend slower with the cold front, which is now
progd to arrive on Wednesday. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, veering
flow will allow a dryline to mix eastward and orient itself from
western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, northeastward through
central/north-central Oklahoma. This dryline will be the focus for
severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with strong instability
and shear yielding all hazards. Additional severe storms will be
possible as the mentioned cold front enters the region Tuesday night
and continues slowly southward through Wednesday morning. This front
is forecast to stall near northern Texas and southern Oklahoma on
Wednesday, where additional severe storms and heavy rain will be
possible late Wednesday into early Thursday. As broad upper trough
approaches during the day Thursday, the stalled front is forecast
to retreat northward and keep the chances for severe weather
going, at least across the eastern-half Oklahoma.

Models begin to diverge on timing/latitude of shortwave ejections
and resulting positions of dryline/frontal boundaries, so overall
confidence is low on exact location and timing of severe weather
through the weekend. Currently, models depict the best chances for
daily severe weather east of Interstate-35 where deeper moisture and
weaker cap will be in play. However, expected amount of
moisture/instability and at least moderately strong southwest flow
over a larger area could result in greater coverage in severe
weather potential next weekend than currently forecast by models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR cigs will be included near KWWR through the morning, with
cigs occasionally just above MVFR expected over toward KPNC down
toward KSWO and KOKC. There is a chance for MVFR at these
locations after some heating takes place this morning, but
confidence not high enough to mention in initial forecast. Winds
will become more southerly and increase toward and after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  73  92  65 /   0   0  10  20
Hobart OK         98  72  96  62 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  94  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           94  65  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  72  92  60 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         87  72  88  73 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11