046
FNUS76 KPDT 242203
FWSPDT

Spot Forecast for Rainwater Rx...Bureau of Indian Affairs - Umatilla Agency
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
303 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 PDT on September 25.
***Thunderstorms imply gusty and erratic winds***
***Winds are 20 foot 10-minute averages***
***CWR-Chance of wetting rain 0.10 or greater***

If you have questions or concerns with this forecast, please
contact our office at (541) 276-8134.

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough will push a strong cold front
out in front of it. Models show the front to pass the fire area
around 11 AM bringing with it windy conditions (see below for more
details). Daytime RH recoveries Wednesday will be good (29-34%) with
excellent overnight recoveries.After the passage of the front,
instability will follow bringing 10-20% chances of thunderstorms
to the area near 5 PM. Thursday weather will settle into a normal
zonal flow pattern with lighter winds below 10 kts and good daytime
RH recoveries.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of showers late
                    in the morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon. Showers likely late in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................6 percent increasing to 27 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........29-34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    west 15 to 20 mph around 5 PM. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    around 5 PM.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph shifting to the
                    west 20 to 25 mph around 5 PM. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    around 5 PM.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (PDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Temp............69     75     74     73     70     62
RH..............39     34     38     40     48     60
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 12  SW 12  W 18   W 20   W 20
20 ft wind gust.13     14     14     19     23     23

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Rain
                    showers likely in the evening, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the evening.
CWR.................27 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2000, then 1.
Min temperature.....45-48.
Max humidity........79-84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to 6 to
                    11 mph around 8 AM. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms around 5 PM.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 8 to
                    13 mph around 8 AM. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms around 5 PM.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....65-68.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 11 mph shifting to the
                    west 5 to 8 mph around 5 PM.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    west 5 to 8 mph around 5 PM.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Bennese
Requested by...Tristan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422982.0/PDT
.DELDT 09/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tristan.spencer@bia.gov