556
FXUS65 KPIH 010913
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
313 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.
Weak ridging over the area early this morning will be pushed
eastward by a weak shortwave trough passing through this afternoon.
It will bring about a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon, particularly in the
higher elevations. Even with the passage of the shortwave, we`ll
warm up quite a bit today with the eastern Magic Valley and lower
Snake Plain returning to the low 80s with 70s through the rest of
the Snake Plain and upper 60s to low 70s in the higher elevations.
Wind gusts will be 20 to 30 mph this afternoon with some stronger
gusts closer to 35 mph out across the Mud Lake/Arco Desert area.
The NBM continues to show a mostly dry solution for overnight
into Sunday while several of the hi-res models bring some showery
activity through the lower elevations tonight.

Aside from a few lingering showers near the Wyoming border Sunday
morning, it should be a fairly quiet start. In the second half of
Sunday our next system will begin to move into the area, arriving
first in parts of the Central Mountains with showers and
thunderstorms overspreading eastward throughout Sunday PM and
Monday. Highs will be about 5 degrees cooler on Sunday compared to
today. Wind gusts will be more noticeable on Sunday, too, with most
of eastern Idaho gusting around 25 mph and stronger gusts of 30 to
40 mph through the eastern Magic Valley and Snake Plain. While these
winds look to stay below Wind Advisory levels, it will be pushing
Lake Wind Advisory levels for the American Falls Reservoir.
AMM

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.
Monday remains the most active day and likely the most impactful day
within the extended forecast period. Widespread showers throughout
the day and afternoon thunderstorms will bring at least some
measurable rain to almost everyone, though that may be least likely
in the Arco Desert/Mud Lake area which is often shadowed in this
type of pattern. In the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, and Southern
Hills "measurable rain" means about a 20 to 40 percent chance of
QPF at least a quarter of an inch throughout Monday. In the Eastern
Highlands up near the Big Hole Mountains and Island Park area, it`s
about a 20 to 40 percent chance of QPF at least a half inch and that
jumps to a 50 to 70 percent chance up in the Sawtooths/Stanley area.
Even an inch of QPF isn`t totally out of the question up in parts of
the Sawtooths with the NBM giving about a 20 to 30 percent chance of
occurrence. Of course, we can`t forget the wind on Monday, too! Gusts
will be strongest in the upper Snake Plain, ranging from 35 to 45
mph, so we may end up needing a Wind Advisory. For everyone else,
wind gusts will be around 25 to 30 mph. This system will drop
temperatures for Monday with highs about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
Sunday, generally in the 50s and 60s.

Activity tapers off Monday night into Tuesday, but winds will remain
breezy with gusts on Tuesday around 25 to 35 mph and afternoon highs
begin to slowly rebound. This will be the start of our warming trend
which reaches its peak on Friday thanks to high pressure building in
over the area. By Thursday afternoon, highs will already be in the
upper 80s and low 90s in the Magic Valley and Snake Plain with a few
more areas joining in on the low 90s for Friday afternoon.
AMM


&&

.AVIATION...12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday.
A weak shortwave passing through the region today will bring about a
10 to 20 percent chance for showers and isolated storms in the mid
to late afternoon across the area, though most sites look to remain
dry until a slightly more organized area of showers passes through
overnight into early Sunday morning. Winds will stay light this
morning before picking up in afternoon with gusts between 15 to
25 kts. Winds back off overnight, but are expected to increase
again for Sunday afternoon. AMM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak shortwave passing through the area will bring
a 10 to 30 percent chance for mostly dry thunderstorms,
particularly in the southern half of the Eastern Highlands. While
there is a slightly better chance for a few showers overnight into
Sunday (20 to 40 percent chance), any QPF looks to remain light,
less than a tenth of an inch. Highs today will be in the 60s and
70s again for most, though parts of the eastern Magic Valley and
lower Snake Plain will warm to near 80 degrees F. Winds will gusts
around 20 to 30 mph for most this afternoon with gusts near 35
mph in the Mud Lake area. Winds will back off tonight, but pick up
once again for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons with the
strongest gusts up to 45 mph in the Mud Lake/Arco Desert area and
gusts 30 to 40 mph elsewhere. A few showers linger around the
Wyoming border Sunday morning, but our next system moves in Sunday
PM through Monday and will bring measurable rain to almost
everyone in eastern Idaho. The highest rain totals will be up in
the Sawtooths/Stanley area where there is a 50 to 70 percent
chance of at least a half inch of QPF on Monday. After Monday,
we`ll dry out and warm up through the rest of the week.
AMM


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$