128
FXUS65 KPIH 230958
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
358 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
Low pressure centered right over the forecast area this AM will
drift east toward the Plains today, resulting in cooler high temps
only reaching the 40s and 50s, as well as additional rain/snow
showers (and perhaps an isolated afternoon t-storm east of I-15).
Several additional inches of snow are possible in Fremont County and
the Big Holes, but impacts will continue to remain very limited due
to marginal temps with the highest accumulations above pass level.
It will remain a bit breezy, especially this AM and especially
across Cassia County and the Raft River region. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
remains in effect for American Falls Reservoir through 3 PM...those
looking to brave the cooler temps and head out on the reservoir will
encounter calmer, safer conditions during the mid-late afternoon.
Finally, a FROST ADVISORY remains in effect through 9 AM, and sfc
obs have dropped into the 31-34 degree range across large portions
of the advisory area, especially west of the I-15 corridor away from
our larger population centers.

A relative break between systems is still expected Fri along with
warmer temps reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s during the
afternoon, but a few isolated showers also can`t be ruled out during
the afternoon along the MT border and in some of our mntn areas.
Another FROST ADVISORY will likely be needed Fri AM. 01

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms start off Memorial
Day Weekend across East Idaho, along with another round of breezy
to windy conditions. A few showers linger generally across the
eastern highlands Sunday, but the trend is for drier and warmer
conditions beginning Sunday and continuing through roughly
Tuesday. Ensemble clusters are in very good agreement with
position of the ridge, but strength varies among the clusters.
Deterministic GFS and ECMWF try to hint at developing very weak
isolated convection by Tuesday afternoon, but the NBM remains dry.
A fast moving system brings a better chance of storms Wednesday.
DMH

&&

.AVIATION...
Another round of showers and wind is forecast for East Idaho
today as the center of a vigorous low pressure system slides
through the region. Breezy winds continue for the Snake Plain
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA terminals, peaking around 20kts sustained early
this afternoon. Showers redevelop, mainly impacting KIDA/KDIJ
today, with lesser chances at KPIH, and likely VCSH at KBYI/KSUN.
KDIJ will be cold enough to experience MVFR -SN or -RASN into
early afternoon, and will likely hold on to the showers the
longest into early evening. An isolated thunderstorm is not out of
the question. Winds decrease late this afternoon into the evening
for all terminals. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The center of a vigorous late winter storm system rolls through
East Idaho today with another round of showers and wind.
Temperatures remain chilly, so showers today should start today
with snow levels very close to valley floors, warming up slightly
to about 7000 ft elevation. Winds remain gusty today, peaking
between 25 and 30 mph in the Snake Plain late morning, then
gradually decreasing through the day. Showers linger through the
Caribou-Targhee early this evening, and a thunderstorm or two is
not out of the question. Drier conditions are expected through
Friday, though a few showers may still be possible along the
Montana border Friday afternoon. The next system drives through
Saturday, with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. DMH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All FLOOD WARNINGS and FLOOD ADVISORIES have been cancelled along
the Portneuf River. The river showed a slight response to rainfall
Wed eve, but the overall downward trend should resume and hold for
the next several days. 01

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$