Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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999 FXUS65 KPUB 240521 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1121 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonably warm again on Tuesday. - Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Currently, some shallow convective cloudiness building up over the mountains today, though only lightning strike as of 2 pm has been in nrn NM. Could still see a very isolated storm over the San Juans late this afternoon, though activity will quickly end early this evening, and won`t carry any pops in the tonight period of the forecast. Temps have bounced back into the 60s/70s at lower elevations today, and have started to see a couple mesonet sites in the low 80s around Pueblo at mid-afternoon. Overnight, skies will quickly clear by late evening, with seasonably cool min temps at most locations. Some patchy frost again likely around Alamosa and across most high mountain valleys, with NBM guidance again looking several degf too warm in the San Luis/Upper Rio Grande Valleys. On the plains, weak cold front will drop south through the area shortly before sunrise, stirring up some briefly gusty north winds along and east of I-25 into mid-morning Tue. On Tuesday, air mass will continue to dry out as upper level high expands from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. As a result, not expecting any afternoon convection, and will run with a dry forecast all locations. Despite the cold front, max temps Tue will change little from Monday`s readings, as mid- level warming spreads across the area in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 227 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Deep upper low/trough will exit well to the east at the start of the period, while upper ridging continues across the region. This ridge looks to be a dominant feature over the region through much of the work week, with dry weather and above normal temperatures expected through this time frame. Will see energy pass to the north and even the previously mentioned upper low meander back west by late in the work week, however, both don`t look to bring any real big changes to the overall pattern. A similar trend is appearing likely through the weekend into early next, with once again, drier weather and above normal temperatures persisting into the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. A weak cold frontal boundary is expected to pass through the Colorado plains late tonight through early Tuesday morning, bringing northerly wind gusts to around 25kt to both KCOS and KPUB after 10Z. Northerly winds look to persist through the morning, with a slow transition the east winds by early afternoon. Mid and upper-level clouds are expected through the first half of the period, with gradual clearing by the end of the day on Tuesday. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...EHR