Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
810 FXUS65 KREV 201939 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1239 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * A dry weather pattern with mainly light winds prevails through early next week, with a possible increase in winds by midweek. * Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through next week. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure off the west coast will keep a dry northwest to north flow aloft over CA/NV through this weekend, with generally light surface winds mainly north to northeast, although some gusts near 20 mph could occur at times for the US-95/US-6 corridors in Mineral and southeast Mono counties. A weak upper disturbance within this flow treks southward along the CA coast Sunday, eventually becoming a closed upper low offshore from southern CA as the high pressure builds inland over the northern Great Basin, setting up a blocking pattern early next week. However, a trough approaching the northwest US may disrupt this block by mid-late next week. Despite all these moving parts in the upper level pattern, the overall effects and impacts will be minimal for the eastern Sierra-western NV, with weather conditions favorable for most outdoor activities. Precipitation chances remain very low (below 10%) for the upcoming week, with daytime temperatures generally within a few degrees of seasonal averages (lower 80s for western NV valleys and lower-mid 70s for Sierra communities), and cool nights as the fall equinox quietly arrives at 5:44 AM PDT Sunday morning. Winds may pick up by Wednesday or Thursday afternoon if the trough follows the southern end of the range presented by the ensemble guidance (about 15-25% of simulations), but even this scenario would only bring a moderate increase in southwest winds with gusts 25-30 mph. The majority of the ensembles (75-85% of simulations) indicates either a weaker trough or a track farther north into the northwest US/SW Canada, which would lead to only a modest increase in afternoon breezes. MJD && .AVIATION... Patchy but shallower fog is likely to return for the next couple of mornings around KTRK, mainly between 09-15Z. Otherwise, light afternoon winds, mostly sunny skies, and VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend and into next week. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$