Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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213 FXUS61 KRLX 240658 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek. Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... Synoptically you have a disturbance, a small upper level short wave associated with a weak surface low bringing the morning rain activity. Then we have an upper level closed low headed our way from the northwest. This feature will setup directly west of the area and spin cyclonically around through this period bringing plenty of moisture up from the deep south. This pattern will continue beyond this period. The main theme of today will be stratiform rain initially with high cloud bases and dark gloomy skies. By the afternoon, more convective rain regime will takeover with shower and storm activity becoming very apparent or at least by mid afternoon. Any thunderstorm may become strong to severe with strong upper level support. CAPE values exceed 2500 J/kg+ along with very high shear to support longer lived updrafts. DCAPE values are at least modest and will support downbursts, especially since we have high moisture content in the column and very sufficient or rather excessive PWATs. With fair amount of helicity and low LCLs, along with high lifted index and no CIN, we cannot rule out a tornado or two. This all hazards threat could virtually happen anywhere, but the higher probability will be across southwestern WV, northeast KY and southeast OH. There should be a short lived lull during the late evening into the overnight with rain returning by the morning. With cloudier skies than yesterday and potential rain activity kept temperatures close to guidance which equated to close to what we had for highs yesterday with a diurnal swing for lows in the low to mid 60`s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Monday... Period begins with deep southwesterly flow across the area, with an upper low/trough axis just to our west. Shortwaves moving through the flow early Wednesday will keep conditions unsettled across the area. However, the upper low will gradually move south and deepen through the day Wednesday into Thursday, with some of the moisture and lift associated with it remaining south and west of our area, with a decrease in shower activity for us. Although not overly warm during the period, conditions will remain muggy, particularly for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1220 PM Monday... Potential for more beneficial rain exists in the long term period. A tropical system will move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico region, and eventually merge with upper low across the southern U.S. There still remains some uncertainty in the exact path of the low and associated moisture across our region, and a farther west solution would obviously mean less beneficial rain for our area, along with the potential for decreased moisture across the lowlands in southeasterly downslope flow. Maintained a central blend of guidance for Friday through the weekend for now. Regardless of the exact path, Friday looks to be rather gusty across the area as the pressure gradient and winds aloft increase with the approaching low, particularly across the higher terrain. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Even with shower and storm activity around the area the sites should get to endure VFR for the most part. Have some stratocu and mid clouds for the time being then by the late morning chances for additional shower and especially storm potential will be on the table. Lower Cu decks will likely be the culprit today with the potential for storms through the afternoon, however thinking the cloud decks should stay in the VFR range or at least really close to the MVFR/VFR threshold. Outside a temporary reduced VIS under a shower the predominant VIS should stay unrestricted. Clouds may lift slightly by the early evening then then more rain expected in the late afternoon and then a lull by the evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 09/24/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L M H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JZ