Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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054 FXUS61 KRLX 261808 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 208 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain will continue tonight. Remnants of Helene arrive Friday morning, spreading strong gusty winds and additional rainfall into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 202 PM Thursday... Key Points: * Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Friday for southwest VA, and along the WV eastern mountains. * High Wind Warning in effect until 7 PM Friday for Dickenson and Buchanan in VA, and McDowell in WV. * Wind Advisory in effect until 7 PM Friday from Wyoming, north through the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties. Deepening upper level low pressure will continue to bring abundant moisture and precipitation mainly across the southern half of the area tonight. Meanwhile, the center of T.S. Helene will approach from the south into central KY. Remnants of Helene (precipitation and strong winds) will be arrive to our area early Friday, bringing additional precipitation and non- thunderstorm high/strong winds. Radar rainfall estimates and rain gauges show from 2 to 4 inches of rain have fallen during the last 24 hours, wetting the local terrain across the eastern mountains. Additional 1 to 2 inches can be expected over these areas through Friday evening. This will continue to produce additional water rises of nearby rivers and creeks, and flooding issues of low lying areas, flood prone areas or even smaller creeks coming out of their banks. Therefore, a Flash Flood watch was issued. Remnants of Helene will be arrive to our area early Friday, bringing additional precipitation and non-thunderstorm high/strong winds. Dynamic ensemble model solutions suggest strong winds 15 to 20 knots arriving to our eastern mountains early Friday. There is high confidence for wind gusts exceeding 50 knots across our southern mountains, and up to 45 knots across the higher elevations of our central and northern mountains on Friday. Therefore, a High Wind Warning was issued for Buchanan, Dickenson and McDowell through Friday evening. For the same token, a Wind advisory was issued for the rest of the higher elevations north to Pocahontas and Randolph. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 206 PM Thursday... Heavier precipitation should gradually be lifting north and west of the area Friday night as remnants of Helene congeal with upper low across MS Valley region, which will continue to rotate just to our west, before gradually drifting east across the area over the weekend, leading to a gradual increase in showery activity once again. Expecting the gusty winds to continue Friday night across the area, before relaxing over the weekend as the low continues to weaken. Overall, a showery, gloomy, early fall weekend on tap, with high temperatures generally topping out in the 60s to lower 70s across the mountains, and generally mid 70s across the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 207 PM Thursday... Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low continues to depart eastward, followed by a front early to mid next week. Showery and cooler weather will be the rule during much of the period, although there are indications of high pressure building in behind the front, for dry conditions, and near seasonable temperatures to end the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM Thursday... MVFR/IFR conditions, under periods of mostly stratiformed rain, will continue across BKW, CRW and HTS through tonight. VFR/MVFR conditions are anticipated across PKB, CKB and EKN through this evening where less rain is expected. Then, conditions may deteriorate as persistent precipitation blankets the southern half of the area later tonight. There may be a lull in precipitation overnight, but ceilings will remain IFR or worse into the early Friday morning. Remnants of Helene will bring strong winds aloft in the order of 50 to 60 knots. These winds will produce strong gusty winds, higher at higher elevations peaking around 15Z Friday, gradually subsiding into Friday evening. Therefore, coded LLWS at BKW, CRW, HTS, and EKN from 15Z on despite having surface gusty winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of low CIGs will vary somewhat from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in showers and storms throughout the week and into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ033-034-515-516-518- 520-522>524. High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ033. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ034-515-516-518-520- 522-523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ003-004. High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ